Free NFL Picks Tools

Three tools for the 2026 season, all built on the same calibrated win probabilities: pick weekly winners, plan a survivor pool the smart way, and optimize an upset-weighted pick-6. Free, no login.

112 games priced by the market · 160 covered by the model · updated weekly

How accurate is this?

2019-2025 holdout
Straight-up accuracy
66.5%
1,865 games
Brier score
0.210
coin flip = 0.250
vs always-home
53.0%
baseline to beat
Model-only accuracy
64.5%
covers unpriced weeks

Win probabilities come from the closing betting market (de-vigged moneyline) wherever a line is posted, the sharpest weekly winner signal there is. Books only price about four weeks out, so an Elo power model covers the rest of the season. The edge these tools add is the decision math, survivor path planning and pick-6 expected value. See this week's board →