Free NFL Picks Tools
Three tools for the 2026 season, all built on the same calibrated win probabilities: pick weekly winners, plan a survivor pool the smart way, and optimize an upset-weighted pick-6. Free, no login.
21 games priced by the market · 251 covered by the model · updated weekly
How accurate is this?
2019-2025 backtestThe win probabilities come from the closing betting market (de-vigged moneyline) wherever a line is posted — that is the single most accurate weekly winner predictor there is, and it's the ceiling. Books only price about four weeks out, so a self-contained Elo power model covers the rest of the season. It tracks just behind the market (64.5% vs 66.5% straight up) and is calibrated, not a claim to beat Vegas. The real edge these tools add is the decision math — survivor path planning and pick-6 expected value — not the raw number. See this week's board →
Weekly Winners
FreeEvery game on the week, ranked by win probability, with the pick, the confidence tier, the spread, and whether the number comes from the market or the model.
Survivor Optimizer
FreePlans your whole survivor season at once so you don't burn your best teams early. Never reuses a team, shows multiple paths, and re-optimizes the moment you pin a pick or mark a team used.
Pick 6
FreeFor the office pick-'em where each game is worth different points. Enter the week's point values and it finds the 6 picks with the highest expected points — upset-weighted, with a risk dial.