Bet The Line
Model-graded DFS edges

Smarter DFS lineups, from a model that grades itself

Your optimal lineup and 150 more, the field projected and the contest simulated, then every projection graded against the real box score. No vibes, receipts.

NASCAR · O'Reilly · Golf · F1 · MMA · WNBA · one subscription

// Optimal lineup · NASCAR276.5
Denny Hamlin$14,00062.9
Tyler Reddick$13,50059.4
Ryan Blaney$12,50054.0
Brad Keselowski$7,00052.5
Daniel Suarez$6,80052.4
Carson Hocevar$9,50051.7
PROJECTED276.5 pts

A real optimizer build on a sample slate.

+31%
Graded edge over field

The golfers the model ranks highest average 89 DraftKings points a tournament, vs 68 for the field, across 157 events.

Graded
Checked vs the box score

Every projection checked against the real box score, no hindsight. See the receipts before you pay a cent.

6 sports
One model, one subscription

NASCAR, O'Reilly, Golf, F1, MMA, WNBA on one model, with NBA coming soon. Free to explore, optimizer when you’re ready.

Receipts, not vibes

We said it, then we showed our work

67%
landed in the projected range · 2,006 graded calls · 55 races
Chicagoland · latest raceProjected rangeActual
  • William Byron
    proj 38.5/85.3
  • Chase Briscoe
    proj 57.1/71.9
  • Denny Hamlin
    proj 36.3/70.8
  • Bubba Wallace
    proj 20.2/60
  • Corey Heim
    proj 37.7/55.2
  • Christopher Bell
    proj 23.6/53

The model projects a range, not a single guess. Above is the latest NASCAR race, and the same grading runs in every other sport:

Golf89 vs 68

DraftKings points: the golfers the model ranks highest vs the field, across 157 tournaments

F112.6 vs 5.9

DraftKings points: the top six projected drivers vs the field, across 33 races

MMA73.54 vs 59.11

DraftKings points: the top six projected fighters vs the field, across 131 cards

WNBA34.91 vs 18.9

DraftKings points: the top six projected players vs the field, across 506 slates

See the full track record →

The toolkit

Everything you need to build and enter

From the parsed slate to the lineups you upload, in one tool.

Optimal, plus 150 more

The single best lineup by projection, then a diversified batch with uniqueness and per-player exposure caps for tournaments. One click to the mass-import CSV.

Model projections

Field-strength-adjusted projections through the real DraftKings and FanDuel scoring, with simulated win %, ceiling, and floor on every player.

Contest simulator

Pick cash or GPP and see win %, cash %, and expected ROI from a Monte-Carlo contest sim before you ever enter.

Ownership and leverage

Projected ownership and a leverage read so you can find the low-owned separators that actually win tournaments.

Live scoring

Watch your lineups score in real time against the projection locked at the start, so you know where you stand mid-event.

Bankroll tracker

Import your DraftKings or FanDuel entry history for real ROI by sport and contest type. Free with any account.

Graded, not claimed

Does the model actually work?

Every player in every completed event, re-projected with no hindsight and graded against the real box score. This is the same accuracy report subscribers see, nothing cherry-picked.

bettheline.app/dfs/stats

Does the model actually work?

Every driver in every completed race, re-projected with no hindsight and graded against real scoring.

Higher projection → more points

The model’s top-projected tier of drivers averaged 66 actual points vs 47 for the field, across 55 races, a rising staircase means the projections rank drivers right.

0204060Projected ~19 → actually scored 31 (n=250)3119Projected ~30 → actually scored 39 (n=251)3930Projected ~38 → actually scored 40 (n=251)4038Projected ~45 → actually scored 46 (n=251)4645Projected ~51 → actually scored 46 (n=250)4651Projected ~58 → actually scored 50 (n=251)5058Projected ~66 → actually scored 57 (n=251)5766Projected ~80 → actually scored 66 (n=251)6680field avg 47Projected points (low tier → high tier) →

Every driver, every race

Each dot is one driver in one race, projected vs. actual (0.47 correlation; the dashed line is a perfect call). Among the cars that finished it rises to 0.58, the 254 wrecks and mechanical DNFs are the off-line dots no model can foresee.

-20-2020206060100100140140perfectProjected points →Actual ↑Wrecked, projected 22.2, scored 37.5Wrecked, projected 48, scored 20.5Did not finish, projected 50.6, scored 32.2Wrecked, projected 62.9, scored 24Wrecked, projected 36.7, scored 26.6Wrecked, projected 47.2, scored 19.1Wrecked, projected 59, scored 16.3Wrecked, projected 32.7, scored 16.3Wrecked, projected 31.7, scored 10.5Wrecked, projected 53.9, scored -7.5Did not finish, projected 35.7, scored -9.8Wrecked, projected 22.1, scored 37.1Wrecked, projected 47.6, scored 31.1Wrecked, projected 56.7, scored 24.3Wrecked, projected 43.8, scored 13.3Wrecked, projected 27.1, scored 22.4Wrecked, projected 30.6, scored 16.8Wrecked, projected 28.1, scored 23.3Wrecked, projected 52.5, scored 1.9Wrecked, projected 24.8, scored 10Wrecked, projected 26.1, scored -5.5Wrecked, projected 48.1, scored 50.9Did not finish, projected 75.3, scored 33.9Wrecked, projected 66.9, scored 33.5Wrecked, projected 35.1, scored 14.4Wrecked, projected 56.2, scored 11.4Wrecked, projected 62.6, scored 13.3Wrecked, projected 52.1, scored -1.7Wrecked, projected 41.7, scored 29.1Wrecked, projected 52.8, scored 23.5Wrecked, projected 79.1, scored 25.9Wrecked, projected 30.7, scored 23.1Did not finish, projected 57.4, scored 23.1Did not finish, projected 46.3, scored 11.8Did not finish, projected 71.1, scored 30.3Wrecked, projected 55.3, scored 18.4Did not finish, projected 87.9, scored 7.2Did not finish, projected 32.1, scored 6Did not finish, projected 74.8, scored 24.2Did not finish, projected 57, scored 22.8Did not finish, projected 52.5, scored 21.3Did not finish, projected 22.9, scored 14.6Wrecked, projected 40.5, scored -4.7Wrecked, projected 60.2, scored -3.9Wrecked, projected 35.9, scored -0.8Wrecked, projected 63.6, scored -8.8Wrecked, projected 32.6, scored 32.9Did not finish, projected 57.8, scored 36.9Wrecked, projected 42.1, scored 38.6Wrecked, projected 64.7, scored 37.7Wrecked, projected 31.6, scored 37.7Wrecked, projected 62.9, scored 13.9Wrecked, projected 40.6, scored 16.2Wrecked, projected 58.6, scored 11.3Wrecked, projected 47.1, scored 9.2Wrecked, projected 31.1, scored 21.2Did not finish, projected 73.3, scored -4.6Did not finish, projected 36.2, scored 22.8Wrecked, projected 61.9, scored 20.2Wrecked, projected 39.7, scored 14.1Wrecked, projected 33.7, scored 23.1Did not finish, projected 63.1, scored 13.8Wrecked, projected 40.2, scored 22.9Did not finish, projected 49.2, scored 1.1Did not finish, projected 40.7, scored 44.8Did not finish, projected 73, scored 40.4Wrecked, projected 75.5, scored 35.2Wrecked, projected 56.7, scored 24Wrecked, projected 91.9, scored 14.4Wrecked, projected 84, scored 19Wrecked, projected 63.4, scored 17.6Wrecked, projected 34.7, scored 0.6Wrecked, projected 38.9, scored 15Wrecked, projected 59.9, scored 10.2Wrecked, projected 40.9, scored 0Wrecked, projected 36.6, scored 22.6Wrecked, projected 26.1, scored 7.7Wrecked, projected 21.6, scored 7.1Wrecked, projected 38.8, scored 1.6Did not finish, projected 37.3, scored 8.1Wrecked, projected 35.4, scored -8.4Wrecked, projected 45.2, scored 9.8Wrecked, projected 54.2, scored 9.4Wrecked, projected 18.7, scored 4.1Did not finish, projected 77.7, scored 21.4Wrecked, projected 78.7, scored 18.2Wrecked, projected 40.9, scored 1Wrecked, projected 66.2, scored 15.4Wrecked, projected 47.5, scored 12.4Wrecked, projected 57.5, scored 0.4Wrecked, projected 59.6, scored -0.5Wrecked, projected 79.9, scored 1.4Wrecked, projected 56.3, scored -6Wrecked, projected 58.4, scored -11.9Wrecked, projected 8.9, scored 26.8Wrecked, projected 16.9, scored 13.4Wrecked, projected 17.9, scored 16.7Wrecked, projected 11.9, scored 5.9Wrecked, projected 23.9, scored 7.3Wrecked, projected 28.9, scored -9.8Wrecked, projected 9.9, scored -7.8Wrecked, projected 31.9, scored -6.8Wrecked, projected 13.4, scored -5.8Did not finish, projected 60.3, scored 0.1Wrecked, projected 35.8, scored 1.1Wrecked, projected 21.3, scored 11.4Wrecked, projected 72.9, scored 36.3Wrecked, projected 49.4, scored 50.6Wrecked, projected 68.2, scored 39.2Did not finish, projected 43.9, scored 45.4Did not finish, projected 61.4, scored 36Did not finish, projected 44.4, scored 27.7Did not finish, projected 64, scored 16.1Wrecked, projected 52.8, scored 15.8Wrecked, projected 36.5, scored 24.1Wrecked, projected 47.1, scored 16.5Did not finish, projected 17.5, scored 21Wrecked, projected 27.5, scored -2.6Did not finish, projected 20.5, scored 8.3Wrecked, projected 24, scored -0.4Wrecked, projected 53.1, scored 0.7Wrecked, projected 80.1, scored 6.2Wrecked, projected 20.2, scored 25.7Did not finish, projected 39.6, scored 6.1Wrecked, projected 24.2, scored 3.8Wrecked, projected 57.1, scored -9.3Wrecked, projected 56.3, scored -0.7Wrecked, projected 20.2, scored 2.7Wrecked, projected 52.3, scored -12.3Wrecked, projected 19.2, scored 0.2Did not finish, projected 41, scored 28.4Wrecked, projected 32.5, scored 28.2Wrecked, projected 44.5, scored 7.9Wrecked, projected 34.5, scored -3.5Wrecked, projected 81.8, scored 43.9Did not finish, projected 59, scored 30.7Wrecked, projected 70, scored 39.4Wrecked, projected 86.4, scored 23.1Did not finish, projected 56, scored -5Wrecked, projected 56.5, scored 19.1Wrecked, projected 62.8, scored 8.4Wrecked, projected 47.5, scored 14.7Wrecked, projected 47.3, scored 35.1Wrecked, projected 48.8, scored 32.2Wrecked, projected 38.3, scored 24.7Wrecked, projected 44.8, scored 18.6Wrecked, projected 30.8, scored 7.7Did not finish, projected 40.3, scored 6.9Wrecked, projected 49.8, scored 29.8Wrecked, projected 51.4, scored 22.5Wrecked, projected 52.8, scored 19.4Wrecked, projected 29.7, scored 30.8Wrecked, projected 60.5, scored 18.5Wrecked, projected 33.7, scored 26.3Wrecked, projected 70.4, scored -2Did not finish, projected 53, scored 57.8Wrecked, projected 69.5, scored 44.6Did not finish, projected 90.7, scored 24.4Did not finish, projected 51.5, scored 31.8Did not finish, projected 95.3, scored 19.5Did not finish, projected 64.3, scored 13.5Wrecked, projected 56.8, scored 17.6Wrecked, projected 27.1, scored 29.3Wrecked, projected 58.4, scored 23.1Wrecked, projected 20.6, scored 32.9Wrecked, projected 63.4, scored 14.5Wrecked, projected 17.6, scored 2.7Wrecked, projected 35.6, scored 16.6Wrecked, projected 44.6, scored 3.9Wrecked, projected 42.8, scored 3.8Wrecked, projected 22.6, scored -1.1Wrecked, projected 55.2, scored 46.8Wrecked, projected 45.1, scored 44.8Wrecked, projected 22.6, scored 35.2Wrecked, projected 64.5, scored 31.1Wrecked, projected 36.1, scored 39.6Wrecked, projected 30.6, scored 33.8Wrecked, projected 29.6, scored 35.5Wrecked, projected 76, scored 21.8Wrecked, projected 49.7, scored 9.4Wrecked, projected 30.6, scored 18.1Wrecked, projected 25.6, scored -1.2Wrecked, projected 61, scored 6.1Wrecked, projected 48.6, scored -2.9Did not finish, projected 46.7, scored -6Wrecked, projected 49.1, scored 41.9Wrecked, projected 42.1, scored 23.4Wrecked, projected 66.6, scored 27.6Wrecked, projected 46.6, scored 24.6Wrecked, projected 40.1, scored 13.1Did not finish, projected 44.6, scored 22.4Wrecked, projected 50.1, scored 20Wrecked, projected 68.5, scored 8.6Did not finish, projected 32.7, scored 9.2Wrecked, projected 45.2, scored 33.8Wrecked, projected 71.8, scored 26.7Did not finish, projected 45.7, scored 33.3Did not finish, projected 53.5, scored 29.6Wrecked, projected 71, scored 15.3Wrecked, projected 44.1, scored 16.9Wrecked, projected 54.1, scored 8.4Wrecked, projected 55.1, scored 3.9Wrecked, projected 48.8, scored 0.7Wrecked, projected 63.6, scored 4.4Wrecked, projected 20.4, scored 8.9Wrecked, projected 52.8, scored 6.7Wrecked, projected 60.1, scored -6.6Wrecked, projected 38.2, scored 35.3Wrecked, projected 63, scored 3.1Wrecked, projected 51.9, scored 6.5Wrecked, projected 66.9, scored -3.5Wrecked, projected 13.3, scored 12.5Wrecked, projected 52.4, scored 31.3Wrecked, projected 69.2, scored 30.4Wrecked, projected 71.4, scored 28.7Wrecked, projected 64.3, scored 34Did not finish, projected 37.1, scored 34.1Wrecked, projected 82.6, scored 2.4Wrecked, projected 63.9, scored -6.8Wrecked, projected 43.6, scored 0.2Wrecked, projected 77.9, scored 37.1Wrecked, projected 58.4, scored 23.1Wrecked, projected 40.4, scored 32.4Wrecked, projected 55.6, scored 22.3Wrecked, projected 50.1, scored 21.3Wrecked, projected 54.1, scored 15.2Wrecked, projected 40.9, scored 14.4Did not finish, projected 70, scored 10Wrecked, projected 59.6, scored 11.1Wrecked, projected 38.4, scored 10.1Wrecked, projected 56.1, scored 24.8Wrecked, projected 40.8, scored 27.8Wrecked, projected 26.6, scored 27.1Wrecked, projected 48.6, scored 28Wrecked, projected 37.6, scored 24.4Wrecked, projected 61, scored 26.4Wrecked, projected 60.3, scored 13.2Wrecked, projected 52.3, scored 17.4Wrecked, projected 40.2, scored 13.6Wrecked, projected 49.7, scored 11.9Wrecked, projected 68.2, scored 1.6Wrecked, projected 35.1, scored 5.7Wrecked, projected 25.1, scored 3.3Did not finish, projected 26.7, scored 14.2Did not finish, projected 38.8, scored 1.1Wrecked, projected 45.3, scored 7.1Did not finish, projected 25.9, scored 13.9Wrecked, projected 14.9, scored 8.2Wrecked, projected 8.4, scored -4.8Wrecked, projected 4.4, scored -6.6Wrecked, projected 30.9, scored -11.7Did not finish, projected 55.2, scored 3.8Wrecked, projected 35.2, scored 7.7Wrecked, projected 37.2, scored -5.5
Finished Wrecked DNF (mechanical / other)

Where the model is sharp

Projection-to-result correlation by track type, high on skill tracks, near-random where drafting and wrecks decide it.

Short tracks
0.39
Intermediate
0.37
Flat / 1-mile
0.40
Road courses
0.33
Superspeedways
0.08

Each race is re-projected using only the races before it (no hindsight), then graded against that race’s real FanDuel scoring. Model: flat-equal-weight (live).

Every slate, one model

One toolkit, every sport

NASCAR, O'Reilly, Golf, F1, MMA, WNBA now, NBA on the way. Explore any optimizer before you sign up.

Golf, too

The same optimizer, every sport

Golf and F1 run on the same engine as NASCAR: upload your slate, get the optimal lineup plus a diversified batch, with projections from a field-strength-adjusted model graded the same way. One subscription, every slate.

See the golf optimizer →
bettheline.app/golf/optimizer
Optimal golf lineup422.4 pts
Rory McIlroy$11,800
Scottie Scheffler$11,500
Jacob Bridgeman$7,100
Adam Scott$6,900
Min Woo Lee$6,400
Nick Taylor$6,300
Salary $50,000
Pricing

One price, every sport

Projections, stats, and the bankroll tracker are free with an account. The optimizer is one subscription that covers NASCAR, O'Reilly, Golf, F1, MMA, WNBA, every slate.

DFS subscription
Free open beta
Free right now

Every DFS tool, free while we beta test. Normally $39.99/mo · or $349.99/yr.

  • Every slate across every sport (DraftKings, plus FanDuel on NASCAR and golf)
  • The single optimal lineup, plus up to 150 diversified lineups
  • Model projections with simulated win %, ceiling, and floor
  • Projected ownership and leverage to find the tournament separators
  • Contest simulator: win %, cash %, and expected ROI before you enter
  • Custom weights, lock or fade, upload your own projections, CSV export
  • Graded results after every slate
Start free

No card required.

FAQ

Questions

What sports do you cover?

NASCAR, golf, and F1 daily fantasy, for both DraftKings and FanDuel, with more sports added every season. One subscription covers all of them.

How is this different from other optimizers?

Every projection is graded against the real box score and the track record is public, so you can see whether the edge is real before you pay. Most tools only claim accuracy.

What is free, and what is paid?

Free with an account: projections, the model's graded stats, and the bankroll tracker. The lineup optimizer is free right now while we beta test, no card required. It will be one subscription that unlocks every sport once the beta ends.

How do I get my slate in?

For DraftKings NASCAR the slate auto-loads. Otherwise upload your DraftKings or FanDuel CSV, then download the mass-import file in one click.

Can I use my own projections or lock and fade players?

Yes. Upload your own projections, lock favorites in, fade or exclude anyone, set per-player exposure caps, and dial how much to trust the model.

Can I track the lineups I entered, live?

Yes. Import the lineups you entered on DraftKings or FanDuel and the live board pins your players and scores each lineup in real time.

Can I cancel anytime?

Yes. Manage or cancel anytime from your account. The subscription is month-to-month or annual, your choice.

Get started

See the edge before you pay for it

Create a free account for the projections, stats, and the bankroll tracker. Add the optimizer whenever you’re ready.