Week 15: NashvilleSunday, May 31 · Regular season

Head-to-Head Matchups · Charlotte Motor Speedway

Final

This race is complete — these were its matchups. The next race's appear here automatically once NASCAR opens picks (the panel follows the live game).

Matchup 1Low · 58%
Denny Hamlin-215
vs
Ryan Blaney+155
⚡ Model fades the favorite — leans Ryan Blaney (contrarian value).
Matchup 2Toss-up · 53%
Christopher Bell-115
vs
Kyle Larson-115
Matchup 3Toss-up · 52%
Bubba Wallace+100
vs
Brad Keselowski-135
⚡ Model fades the favorite — leans Bubba Wallace (contrarian value).
Matchup 4Toss-up · 53%
William Byron+130
vs
Tyler Reddick-180
⚡ Model fades the favorite — leans William Byron (contrarian value).

Recommended side (★) blends Vegas odds (65%) with your True Strength model (35%); the badge is confidence × win-probability, discounted at high-variance tracks. Backtest: the model alone hit 62% on H2H — best when track form holds, near-coin-flip at chaos tracks.

Recommended lineups at Nashville — 5 starters + 1 garage
Optimal Use

Spends uses where they matter most — every starter is at one of their best remaining tracks.

Denny Hamlin #2/125 left
Kyle Larson #3/125 left
Ross Chastain #1/129 left
Christopher Bell #3/114 left
Chase Elliott #5/127 left
GarageRyan Blaney #6/125 left
Max Upside

Highest raw ceiling at this track, even if it burns a use you might rather save.

Denny Hamlin #2/125 left
Kyle Larson #3/125 left
Ross Chastain #1/129 left
Christopher Bell #3/114 left
Ryan Blaney #6/125 left
GarageChase Elliott #5/127 left
Saving this week buys you…
  • Ryan Blaney (5 uses left) → keep for Iowa, Atlanta 2, North Wilkesboro, New Hampshire, Indianapolis
✓/✗ = whether this track is an optimal use of that driver (rank among their remaining tracks). Garage is swappable through Stage 2. Backtest (13 races): prime picks averaged +11 pts over the field, 69% top-10 hit.

Usages Left

DriverLeft
Tyler Reddick3
Christopher Bell4
Denny Hamlin5
Kyle Larson5
Ryan Blaney5
William Byron5
Joey Logano6
Ty Gibbs6
Chase Elliott7
Chris Buescher7
Chase Briscoe7
Brad Keselowski8
Bubba Wallace9
Ross Chastain9
Erik Jones9
Kyle Busch9
Todd Gilliland9
A.J. Allmendinger10
Austin Cindric10
Zane Smith10
Ryan Preece10
Austin Dillon10
Michael McDowell10
Alex Bowman10
Cole Custer10
Noah Gragson10
Ricky Stenhouse Jr10
Ty Dillon10
Josh Berry10
Cody Ware10
RkDriverUse?TrueStrPtsScoreAvgFnT5T10
1Denny Hamlin✓ #2/1225.719373.26.023
2Kyle Larson✓ #3/129.115150.06.324
7Ross Chastain✓ #1/128.612442.812.522
5Christopher Bell✓ #3/117.312939.715.303
4Ryan Blaney✗ #6/127.213342.911.523
3Chase Elliott✓ #5/127.114346.79.522
6Joey Logano✓ #6/126.812846.48.323
8Tyler Reddick✗ #5/116.112440.115.012
9William Byron✓ #5/125.711837.516.312
19Zane Smith✓ #2/114.56232.37.511
10Bubba Wallace✓ #6/124.211841.610.002
12Erik Jones✓ #2/123.39531.815.002
13Kyle Busch✓ #7/122.99331.417.301
14Chris Buescher✓ #7/122.98632.416.811
15Austin Cindric✓ #4/112.18631.216.801
18Ryan Preece✓ #8/121.86326.316.011
20Austin Dillon✗ #12/121.66022.122.000
17Brad Keselowski✗ #12/121.67224.622.000
27Ty Gibbs✗ #10/111.54821.122.700
22Michael McDowell✓ #8/121.55520.824.300
24Corey LaJoie1.55124.820.000
29Ricky Stenhouse Jr✓ #8/121.44413.626.800
26A.J. Allmendinger✓ #6/121.44832.415.001
35Josh Berry✓ #9/111.4209.028.000
28Alex Bowman✗ #11/121.34518.825.800
32Cole Custer✓ #3/101.32918.022.500
30Noah Gragson✓ #7/111.24014.624.701
23Chase Briscoe✗ #11/111.05321.425.800
25Todd Gilliland✗ #10/110.85022.424.500
34Ty Dillon✓ #8/120.2228.429.700
36Cody Ware✓ #6/100.2146.330.000
39J.J. Yeley0.006.430.300
37B.J. McLeod0.002.732.000
38Josh Bilicki0.001.733.500