Fantasy Projections

2026 · Week 1 · every rostered player, one model, graded every week

Graded, not claimed

2025 season, every player

Every projection re-run with no hindsight and checked against the real box score. The players this model ranked highest averaged 20.8 points a week vs 6.6 for the field, and it beats a recent-form baseline at every skill position:

0.55

form 0.47

0.70

form 0.68

0.64

form 0.63

0.64

form 0.62

DST

0.30

form 0.07

0.17

form 0.11

r = correlation to actual · higher beats the recency-form baseline · graded on DraftKings scoring

Player

PPR

Christian McCaffrey

RB · SF @ LAeven D #21

21.4

Puka Nacua

WR · LA vs SFeven D #12

20.5

Bijan Robinson

RB · ATL @ PITtough D #25

20.3

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · DET vs NOeven D #20

19.6

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · SEA vs NEeven D #20

19.5

Justin Herbert

QB · LAC vs ARIeven D #14

19.2

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · CIN vs TBeven D #14

18.9

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · DET vs NOeven D #21

18.5

A.J. Brown

WR · NE @ SEAtough D #29

18.4

Jalen Hurts

QB · PHI vs WASsoft D #3

18.0

Ashton Jeanty

RB · LV vs MIAsoft D #7

17.6

Chris Olave

WR · NO @ DETsoft D #4

17.5

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JAX vs CLEtough D #28

17.5

Chase Brown

RB · CIN vs TBeven D #15

17.3

Jaxson Dart

QB · NYG vs DALsoft D #1

17.2

Drake Maye

QB · NE @ SEAtough D #26

17.1

Lamar Jackson

QB · BAL @ INDeven D #15

17.1

Joe Burrow

QB · CIN vs TBsoft D #4

17.1

Omarion Hampton

RB · LAC vs ARIsoft D #3

16.9

Brock Purdy

QB · SF @ LAeven D #19

16.8

Jonathan Taylor

RB · IND vs BALeven D #10

16.8

Trey McBride

TE · ARI @ LACtough D #28

16.7

Rashee Rice

WR · KC vs DENeven D #24

16.7

Malik Nabers

WR · NYG vs DALsoft D #1

16.7

Derrick Henry

RB · BAL @ INDeven D #23

16.7

Matthew Stafford

QB · LA vs SFeven D #13

16.6

De'Von Achane

RB · MIA @ LVeven D #12

16.4

Jayden Daniels

QB · WAS @ PHIeven D #23

16.3

Patrick Mahomes

QB · KC vs DENeven D #24

16.3

Kyler Murray

QB · MIN vs GBeven D #21

16.1

Dak Prescott

QB · DAL @ NYGsoft D #8

16.1

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB @ CINsoft D #7

16.0

Justin Jefferson

WR · MIN vs GBeven D #15

16.0

Tyler Shough

QB · NO @ DETeven D #9

15.9

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI @ CARtough D #27

15.9

Zay Flowers

WR · BAL @ INDsoft D #2

15.8

Jared Goff

QB · DET vs NOtough D #25

15.7

Bo Nix

QB · DEN @ KCeven D #20

15.4

Josh Allen

QB · BUF @ HOUtough D #30

15.3

Saquon Barkley

RB · PHI vs WASsoft D #6

15.3

George Kittle

TE · SF @ LAeven D #18

15.0

Drake London

WR · ATL @ PITsoft D #7

14.8

Wan'Dale Robinson

WR · TEN vs NYJeven D #17

14.8

Bryce Young

QB · CAR vs CHIeven D #11

14.8

Davante Adams

WR · LA vs SFeven D #12

14.6

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA vs NEeven D #22

14.4

C.J. Stroud

QB · HOU vs BUFtough D #29

14.3

Daniel Jones

QB · IND vs BALeven D #12

14.3

Nico Collins

WR · HOU vs BUFtough D #28

14.1

Cam Skattebo

RB · NYG vs DALsoft D #5

14.1

Brock Bowers

TE · LV vs MIAsoft D #4

13.9

Aaron Jones

RB · MIN vs GBeven D #16

13.7

CeeDee Lamb

WR · DAL @ NYGeven D #9

13.7

Michael Wilson

WR · ARI @ LACeven D #22

13.6

Jacoby Brissett

QB · ARI @ LACtough D #31

13.6

Kenneth Gainwell

RB · TB @ CINsoft D #1

13.6

Rico Dowdle

RB · PIT vs ATLeven D #17

13.5

Bucky Irving

RB · TB @ CINsoft D #1

13.4

Aaron Rodgers

QB · PIT vs ATLeven D #16

13.4

Kyren Williams

RB · LA vs SFeven D #11

13.4

Javonte Williams

RB · DAL @ NYGsoft D #4

13.3

Terry McLaurin

WR · WAS @ PHItough D #27

13.2

Jordan Love

QB · GB @ MINtough D #32

13.2

Josh Jacobs

RB · GB @ MINeven D #24

13.2

Mike Evans

WR · SF @ LAeven D #13

13.2

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

RB · NYG vs DALsoft D #5

13.2

George Pickens

WR · DAL @ NYGeven D #9

13.2

Courtland Sutton

WR · DEN @ KCeven D #23

12.9

Garrett Wilson

WR · NYJ @ TENsoft D #5

12.8

Cam Ward

QB · TEN vs NYJsoft D #2

12.7

Tee Higgins

WR · CIN vs TBeven D #14

12.7

Tony Pollard

RB · TEN vs NYJsoft D #2

12.7

Kirk Cousins

QB · LV vs MIAeven D #10

12.7

DK Metcalf

WR · PIT vs ATLeven D #10

12.6

D'Andre Swift

RB · CHI @ CAReven D #9

12.6

Colston Loveland

TE · CHI @ CAReven D #16

12.6

Tetairoa McMillan

WR · CAR vs CHIsoft D #6

12.5

Zach Charbonnet

RB · SEA vs NEtough D #29

12.5

Breece Hall

RB · NYJ @ TENeven D #19

12.4

Jaylen Warren

RB · PIT vs ATLeven D #17

12.4

James Cook

RB · BUF @ HOUeven D #22

12.4

DeVonta Smith

WR · PHI vs WASsoft D #8

12.2

Jakobi Meyers

WR · JAX vs CLEtough D #25

12.2

Kyle Pitts

TE · ATL @ PITsoft D #3

12.2

Justin Fields

QB · KC vs DENeven D #24

12.2

Jaylen Waddle

WR · DEN @ KCeven D #23

12.2

Parker Washington

WR · JAX vs CLEtough D #25

12.1

Harold Fannin Jr.

TE · CLE @ JAXeven D #9

12.1

Christian Watson

WR · GB @ MINtough D #32

12.0

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ @ TENsoft D #5

12.0

Travis Etienne

RB · NO @ DETtough D #26

11.9

RJ Harvey

RB · DEN @ KCtough D #27

11.9

Dallas Goedert

TE · PHI vs WASsoft D #5

11.8

Jameson Williams

WR · DET vs NOeven D #21

11.6

Tyler Warren

TE · IND vs BALtough D #26

11.6

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · ATL @ PITsoft D #6

11.5

James Conner

RB · ARI @ LACtough D #31

11.5

Hunter Henry

TE · NE @ SEAeven D #11

11.5

Rome Odunze

WR · CHI @ CARtough D #26

11.5

100

Quinshon Judkins

RB · CLE @ JAXtough D #30

11.4

101

Ladd McConkey

WR · LAC vs ARIeven D #18

11.4

102

Chris Godwin Jr.

WR · TB @ CINtough D #31

11.3

103

Alec Pierce

WR · IND vs BALsoft D #3

11.0

104

Kenneth Walker III

RB · KC vs DENtough D #32

11.0

105

Travis Kelce

TE · KC vs DENeven D #14

11.0

106

Sam LaPorta

TE · DET vs NOeven D #19

11.0

107

Deshaun Watson

QB · CLE @ JAXeven D #18

10.9

108

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · NE @ SEAtough D #28

10.9

109

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR · JAX vs CLEtough D #25

10.8

110

Dalton Schultz

TE · HOU vs BUFtough D #32

10.7

111

J.J. McCarthy

QB · MIN vs GBeven D #21

10.7

112

Khalil Shakir

WR · BUF @ HOUtough D #30

10.6

113

J.K. Dobbins

RB · DEN @ KCtough D #27

10.6

114

Alvin Kamara

RB · NO @ DETtough D #26

10.6

115

Quentin Johnston

WR · LAC vs ARIeven D #18

10.4

116

Ricky Pearsall

WR · SF @ LAeven D #13

10.3

117

Tre Tucker

WR · LV vs MIAeven D #19

10.3

118

Romeo Doubs

WR · NE @ SEAtough D #29

10.3

119

Malik Willis

QB · MIA @ LVeven D #17

10.2

120

Mack Hollins

WR · NE @ SEAtough D #29

10.1

121

Tyjae Spears

RB · TEN vs NYJsoft D #2

10.1

122

Juwan Johnson

TE · NO @ DETeven D #15

10.1

123

TreVeyon Henderson

RB · NE @ SEAtough D #28

10.1

124

Emeka Egbuka

WR · TB @ CINtough D #31

10.1

125

Marvin Harrison Jr.

WR · ARI @ LACeven D #22

10.0

126

Woody Marks

RB · HOU vs BUFsoft D #8

10.0

127

Jauan Jennings

WR · MIN vs GBeven D #15

10.0

128

Tucker Kraft

TE · GB @ MINtough D #27

9.9

129

Marcus Mariota

QB · WAS @ PHIeven D #23

9.9

130

Tank Dell

WR · HOU vs BUFtough D #28

9.8

131

Jerry Jeudy

WR · CLE @ JAXeven D #16

9.7

132

Cade Otton

TE · TB @ CINsoft D #1

9.7

133

Michael Carter

RB · TEN vs NYJsoft D #2

9.6

134

Michael Pittman

WR · PIT vs ATLeven D #10

9.5

135

Anthony Richardson

QB · IND vs BALeven D #12

9.5

136

Kyle Monangai

RB · CHI @ CAReven D #9

9.5

137

Tyler Huntley

QB · BAL @ INDeven D #15

9.4

138

Mark Andrews

TE · BAL @ INDsoft D #8

9.4

139

Theo Johnson

TE · NYG vs DALeven D #21

9.4

140

DJ Moore

WR · BUF @ HOUtough D #30

9.3

141

Jameis Winston

QB · NYG vs DALsoft D #1

9.3

142

Chuba Hubbard

RB · CAR vs CHIeven D #18

9.3

143

Luther Burden III

WR · CHI @ CARtough D #26

9.3

144

Darius Slayton

WR · NYG vs DALsoft D #1

9.3

145

Colby Parkinson

TE · LA vs SFeven D #10

9.2

146

Spencer Rattler

QB · NO @ DETeven D #9

9.2

147

Jalen Coker

WR · CAR vs CHIsoft D #6

9.2

148

Isiah Pacheco

RB · DET vs NOeven D #20

9.1

149

Cameron Dicker

K · LAC vs ARI

9.1

150

Jordan Addison

WR · MIN vs GBeven D #15

9.1

151

Brenton Strange

TE · JAX vs CLEeven D #22

9.1

152

Michael Penix Jr.

QB · ATL @ PITsoft D #6

9.1

153

Jake Bates

K · DET vs NO

8.9

154

Tyrod Taylor

QB · GB @ MINtough D #32

8.9

155

Josh Downs

WR · IND vs BALsoft D #3

8.9

156

Carson Wentz

QB · MIN vs GBeven D #21

8.8

157

Shedeur Sanders

QB · CLE @ JAXeven D #18

8.8

158

Kimani Vidal

RB · LAC vs ARIsoft D #3

8.8

159

Brandon Aubrey

K · DAL @ NYG

8.8

160

David Montgomery

RB · HOU vs BUFsoft D #8

8.7

161

Tyler Loop

K · BAL @ IND

8.7

162

Evan McPherson

K · CIN vs TB

8.7

163

Jake Elliott

K · PHI vs WAS

8.6

164

Harrison Mevis

K · LA vs SF

8.6

165

Jason Myers

K · SEA vs NE

8.5

166

Jake Ferguson

TE · DAL @ NYGeven D #24

8.4

167

Cam Little

K · JAX vs CLE

8.4

168

Xavier Worthy

WR · KC vs DENeven D #24

8.4

169

Chase McLaughlin

K · TB @ CIN

8.3

170

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K · HOU vs BUF

8.3

171

Will Levis

QB · TEN vs NYJsoft D #2

8.3

172

Cairo Santos

K · CHI @ CAR

8.3

173

T.J. Hockenson

TE · MIN vs GBeven D #23

8.3

174

AJ Barner

TE · SEA vs NEeven D #13

8.2

175

Blake Grupe

K · IND vs BAL

8.2

176

Harrison Butker

K · KC vs DEN

8.2

177

Oronde Gadsden II

TE · LAC vs ARIsoft D #2

8.2

178

Lucas Havrisik

K · GB @ MIN

8.2

179

Eddy Pineiro

K · SF @ LA

8.2

180

Chris Boswell

K · PIT vs ATL

8.2

181

Ben Sauls

K · NYG vs DAL

8.2

182

Jalen McMillan

WR · TB @ CINtough D #31

8.1

183

Chargers DST

DST · LAC vs ARI

8.1

184

Chig Okonkwo

TE · WAS @ PHItough D #31

8.1

185

Dalton Kincaid

TE · BUF @ HOUeven D #20

8.1

186

Tyler Bass

K · BUF @ HOU

8.1

187

Aidan O'Connell

QB · LV vs MIAeven D #10

8.1

188

Will Reichard

K · MIN vs GB

8.1

189

Matt Gay

K · LV vs MIA

8.0

190

Charlie Smyth

K · NO @ DET

8.0

191

Cooper Kupp

WR · SEA vs NEeven D #20

7.9

192

Joey Slye

K · TEN vs NYJ

7.9

193

Chimere Dike

WR · TEN vs NYJeven D #17

7.9

194

Andy Borregales

K · NE @ SEA

7.8

195

Ryan Fitzgerald

K · CAR vs CHI

7.8

196

Nick Folk

K · ATL @ PIT

7.8

197

Mason Taylor

TE · NYJ @ TENeven D #12

7.8

198

Joe Flacco

QB · CIN vs TBsoft D #4

7.8

199

Jake Moody

K · WAS @ PHI

7.8

200

Wil Lutz

K · DEN @ KC

7.8

201

Davis Mills

QB · HOU vs BUFtough D #29

7.8

202

Troy Franklin

WR · DEN @ KCeven D #23

7.7

203

Elic Ayomanor

WR · TEN vs NYJeven D #17

7.7

204

Riley Patterson

K · MIA @ LV

7.6

205

Jayden Reed

WR · GB @ MINtough D #32

7.6

206

Darnell Mooney

WR · NYG vs DALsoft D #1

7.6

207

Devin Singletary

RB · NYG vs DALsoft D #5

7.6

208

Malik Washington

WR · MIA @ LVeven D #11

7.5

209

Jayden Higgins

WR · HOU vs BUFtough D #28

7.5

210

Devaughn Vele

WR · NO @ DETsoft D #4

7.5

211

Adonai Mitchell

WR · NYJ @ TENsoft D #5

7.5

212

Bam Knight

RB · ARI @ LACtough D #31

7.5

213

Seahawks DST

DST · SEA vs NE

7.5

214

Jason Sanders

K · NYJ @ TEN

7.4

215

Calvin Ridley

WR · TEN vs NYJeven D #17

7.3

216

Chad Ryland

K · ARI @ LAC

7.3

217

Audric Estimé

RB · NO @ DETtough D #26

7.3

218

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

RB · JAX vs CLEeven D #14

7.3

219

Ty Johnson

RB · BUF @ HOUeven D #22

7.3

220

Rachaad White

RB · WAS @ PHIeven D #13

7.2

221

Blake Corum

RB · LA vs SFeven D #11

7.2

222

Jaguars DST

DST · JAX vs CLE

7.2

223

Andre Szmyt

K · CLE @ JAX

7.2

224

Greg Dulcich

TE · MIA @ LVtough D #30

7.1

225

Ryan Flournoy

WR · DAL @ NYGeven D #9

7.1

226

Tyler Higbee

TE · LA vs SFeven D #10

7.1

227

Samaje Perine

RB · CIN vs TBeven D #15

7.1

228

Dylan Sampson

RB · CLE @ JAXtough D #30

7.1

229

Isaiah Likely

TE · NYG vs DALeven D #21

7.1

230

Sincere McCormick

RB · SF @ LAeven D #21

7.1

231

Vikings DST

DST · MIN vs GB

7.1

232

Dawson Knox

TE · BUF @ HOUeven D #20

7.0

233

John Metchie III

WR · CAR vs CHIsoft D #6

7.0

234

Keon Coleman

WR · BUF @ HOUtough D #30

7.0

235

Eagles DST

DST · PHI vs WAS

7.0

236

Evan Engram

TE · DEN @ KCtough D #25

7.0

237

Chiefs DST

DST · KC vs DEN

7.0

238

Raiders DST

DST · LV vs MIA

7.0

239

Devin Neal

RB · NO @ DETtough D #26

7.0

240

Quinn Ewers

QB · MIA @ LVeven D #17

7.0

241

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

RB · WAS @ PHIeven D #13

7.0

242

Pat Bryant

WR · DEN @ KCeven D #23

6.9

243

Kayshon Boutte

WR · NE @ SEAtough D #29

6.8

244

Titans DST

DST · TEN vs NYJ

6.8

245

Mike Gesicki

TE · CIN vs TBsoft D #6

6.7

246

Lions DST

DST · DET vs NO

6.7

247

Steelers DST

DST · PIT vs ATL

6.7

248

Pat Freiermuth

TE · PIT vs ATLtough D #29

6.7

249

Trey Lance

QB · LAC vs ARIeven D #14

6.7

250

Mac Jones

QB · SF @ LAeven D #19

6.6

251

Jawhar Jordan

RB · HOU vs BUFsoft D #8

6.6

252

David Njoku

TE · LAC vs ARIsoft D #2

6.6

253

Michael Mayer

TE · LV vs MIAsoft D #4

6.5

254

Jordan Mason

RB · MIN vs GBeven D #16

6.4

255

Marquise Brown

WR · PHI vs WASsoft D #8

6.4

256

Emanuel Wilson

RB · SEA vs NEtough D #29

6.3

257

Albert Okwuegbunam

TE · LV vs MIAsoft D #4

6.3

258

Trey Benson

RB · ARI @ LACtough D #31

6.3

259

Ravens DST

DST · BAL @ IND

6.2

260

Jake Browning

QB · TB @ CINsoft D #7

6.2

261

Brady Cook

QB · NYJ @ TENsoft D #5

6.2

262

Andy Dalton

QB · PHI vs WASsoft D #3

6.2

263

Browns DST

DST · CLE @ JAX

6.1

264

Bills DST

DST · BUF @ HOU

6.1

265

Dolphins DST

DST · MIA @ LV

6.1

266

Tank Bigsby

RB · PHI vs WASsoft D #6

6.1

267

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · DAL @ NYGeven D #9

6.0

268

Jaylen Wright

RB · MIA @ LVeven D #12

6.0

269

Gunnar Helm

TE · TEN vs NYJsoft D #7

6.0

270

Xavier Legette

WR · CAR vs CHIsoft D #6

6.0

271

Tory Horton

WR · SEA vs NEeven D #20

6.0

272

Bengals DST

DST · CIN vs TB

6.0

273

Rashid Shaheed

WR · SEA vs NEeven D #20

6.0

274

Riley Leonard

QB · IND vs BALeven D #12

5.9

275

Xavier Hutchinson

WR · HOU vs BUFtough D #28

5.9

276

Theo Wease Jr.

WR · MIA @ LVeven D #11

5.8

277

Mason Rudolph

QB · PIT vs ATLeven D #16

5.8

278

Giants DST

DST · NYG vs DAL

5.8

279

Rams DST

DST · LA vs SF

5.8

280

Treylon Burks

WR · WAS @ PHItough D #27

5.7

281

Jalen Nailor

WR · LV vs MIAeven D #19

5.7

282

Texans DST

DST · HOU vs BUF

5.7

283

Falcons DST

DST · ATL @ PIT

5.7

284

Packers DST

DST · GB @ MIN

5.7

285

Phil Mafah

RB · DAL @ NYGsoft D #4

5.7

286

Malik Davis

RB · DAL @ NYGsoft D #4

5.7

287

Bears DST

DST · CHI @ CAR

5.6

288

Raheim Sanders

RB · CLE @ JAXtough D #30

5.6

289

Christian Kirk

WR · SF @ LAeven D #13

5.6

290

49ers DST

DST · SF @ LA

5.6

291

Cowboys DST

DST · DAL @ NYG

5.6

292

Panthers DST

DST · CAR vs CHI

5.5

293

Sean Tucker

RB · TB @ CINsoft D #1

5.5

294

Marvin Mims Jr.

WR · DEN @ KCeven D #23

5.5

295

Tyler Allgeier

RB · ARI @ LACtough D #31

5.5

296

Buccaneers DST

DST · TB @ CIN

5.5

297

Jets DST

DST · NYJ @ TEN

5.5

298

Broncos DST

DST · DEN @ KC

5.4

299

Matthew Golden

WR · GB @ MINtough D #32

5.4

300

Kevin Austin Jr.

WR · NO @ DETsoft D #4

5.4

Projections from one model — team environment × opportunity share × efficiency × touchdown allocation — scored under your format. The soft D / tough Dchip is the opponent defense's rank in fantasy points allowed to that position (1 = softest), from 2025 (last season, until this year's games sharpen it). Players ruled out by the injury report are zeroed and their volume redistributed. Refreshes weekly; custom league scoring is coming.