The receipts

Our DFS model track record

Most DFS tools claim an edge. We show ours. Every projection across every sport is checked against the real box score with no hindsight, so you can see whether the model actually works before you pay for it.

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Graded, every sport

The real numbers, by sport

Every projection checked against the real box score. Tap through for the full report.

NASCAR

0.28

projection-to-result correlation on DraftKings, across 55 graded races.

See the NASCAR report →

Golf

89 vs 68

DraftKings points: the golfers the model ranks highest vs the field, across 157 tournaments.

See the Golf report →

12.6 vs 5.9

DraftKings points: the top six projected drivers vs the field, across 33 races.

See the F1 report →

MMA

73.54 vs 59.11

DraftKings points: the top six projected fighters vs the field, across 131 cards.

See the MMA report →

WNBA

34.91 vs 18.9

DraftKings points: the top six projected players vs the field, across 506 slates.

See the WNBA report →

Projected versus actual, every driver

One dot per driver per completed NASCAR race: the model’s lookahead-free projection against what they actually scored. The same graded report subscribers see, nothing cherry-picked.

Does the model actually work?

Every driver in every completed race, re-projected with no hindsight and graded against real scoring.

Higher projection → more points

The model’s top-projected tier of drivers averaged 66 actual points vs 47 for the field, across 55 races, a rising staircase means the projections rank drivers right.

Every driver, every race

Each dot is one driver in one race, projected vs. actual (0.47 correlation; the dashed line is a perfect call). Among the cars that finished it rises to 0.58, the 254 wrecks and mechanical DNFs are the off-line dots no model can foresee.

Finished Wrecked DNF (mechanical / other)

Where the model is sharp

Projection-to-result correlation by track type, high on skill tracks, near-random where drafting and wrecks decide it.

Short tracks

0.39useful8 races

Intermediate

0.37useful24 races

Flat / 1-mile

0.40useful5 races

Road courses

0.33useful9 races

Superspeedways

0.08chaos, diversify9 races

Each race is re-projected using only the races before it (no hindsight), then graded against that race’s real FanDuel scoring. Model: flat-equal-weight (live).

Track record questions

Is the track record cherry-picked?

No. Every completed event in every sport is included, not just the good ones, and every projection is re-run with only what was known before the event.

What does “top players average X vs Y” mean?

The players the model ranks highest score that many DraftKings points on average, versus the field average. Leaning on the top of the board scores more.

Can I see the projections before I pay?

Yes. The projections, the stats, and this track record are free with an account. The lineup optimizer is one subscription that covers every sport.

See the edge before you pay for it.

Create a free account for the projections, the stats, and the full graded report on every sport.

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