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The receipts

Our DFS model track record

Most DFS tools claim an edge. We show ours. Every projection across every sport is checked against the real box score.

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Graded, every sport

The real numbers, by sport

Every projection checked against the real box score. Tap through for the full report.

NASCAR
0.28

projection-to-result correlation on DraftKings, across 61 graded races.

See the NASCAR report →
O'Reilly
0.37

projection-to-result correlation on DraftKings, across 51 graded Xfinity races.

See the O'Reilly report →
Golf
87 vs 67

DraftKings points: the golfers the model ranks highest vs the field, across 167 tournaments.

See the Golf report →
F1
12.6 vs 5.9

DraftKings points: the top six projected drivers vs the field, across 36 races.

See the F1 report →
MMA
74.01 vs 59.27

DraftKings points: the top six projected fighters vs the field, across 138 cards.

See the MMA report →
WNBA
35.13 vs 18.9

DraftKings points: the top six projected players vs the field, across 544 slates.

See the WNBA report →

Projected versus actual, every driver

One dot per driver per completed NASCAR race: the model’s projection against what they actually scored. The same graded report subscribers see.

Does the model actually work?

Every driver in every completed race, re-projected and graded against real scoring.

Higher projection → more points

The model’s top-projected tier of drivers averaged 67 actual points vs 47 for the field, across 61 races, a rising staircase means the projections rank drivers right.

0204060Projected ~20 → actually scored 32 (n=282)3220Projected ~32 → actually scored 37 (n=283)3732Projected ~39 → actually scored 41 (n=282)4139Projected ~45 → actually scored 47 (n=283)4745Projected ~51 → actually scored 49 (n=283)4951Projected ~57 → actually scored 50 (n=282)5057Projected ~65 → actually scored 57 (n=283)5765Projected ~78 → actually scored 67 (n=283)6778field avg 47Projected points (low tier → high tier) →

Every driver, every race

Each dot is one driver in one race, projected vs. actual (0.48 correlation; the dashed line is a perfect call). Among the cars that finished it rises to 0.59, the 284 wrecks and mechanical DNFs are the off-line dots no model can foresee.

-20-2020206060100100140140perfectProjected points →Actual ↑Wrecked, projected 68, scored 19.1Wrecked, projected 59.4, scored 24Wrecked, projected 53.2, scored 16.3Wrecked, projected 44.7, scored -7.5Wrecked, projected 40.3, scored 20.5Did not finish, projected 43.2, scored -9.8Did not finish, projected 44.2, scored 32.2Wrecked, projected 32.7, scored 37.5Wrecked, projected 34.2, scored 16.3Wrecked, projected 23.2, scored 26.6Wrecked, projected 18.2, scored 10.5Wrecked, projected 62, scored 1.9Wrecked, projected 70.5, scored 24.3Wrecked, projected 55.2, scored 31.1Wrecked, projected 33.6, scored 16.8Wrecked, projected 36.1, scored 22.4Wrecked, projected 37.1, scored 23.3Wrecked, projected 16.6, scored 13.3Wrecked, projected 10.1, scored 37.1Wrecked, projected 39.5, scored -5.5Wrecked, projected 37.8, scored -2.6Wrecked, projected 24.8, scored 10Did not finish, projected 70.5, scored 33.9Wrecked, projected 58.9, scored -1.7Wrecked, projected 61.6, scored 33.5Wrecked, projected 59.1, scored 11.4Wrecked, projected 56.6, scored 13.3Wrecked, projected 50.1, scored 14.4Wrecked, projected 46.6, scored 50.9Wrecked, projected 38.1, scored 19Wrecked, projected 29.6, scored 4.3Wrecked, projected 36.1, scored 35.5Wrecked, projected 50.7, scored 25.9Wrecked, projected 38.7, scored 29.1Wrecked, projected 30.2, scored 23.5Wrecked, projected 32.2, scored 23.1Did not finish, projected 68.2, scored 23.1Did not finish, projected 46.3, scored 11.8Did not finish, projected 57.2, scored 30.3Did not finish, projected 65.2, scored 7.2Wrecked, projected 44.6, scored 18.4Did not finish, projected 32.1, scored 6Did not finish, projected 85.4, scored 24.2Did not finish, projected 51, scored 22.8Did not finish, projected 51, scored 21.3Wrecked, projected 63.6, scored -8.8Wrecked, projected 53.6, scored -3.9Wrecked, projected 56.2, scored -0.8Wrecked, projected 41.9, scored -4.7Did not finish, projected 25.9, scored 14.6Did not finish, projected 69.6, scored -4.6Wrecked, projected 66, scored 13.9Wrecked, projected 63.9, scored 11.3Wrecked, projected 55.6, scored 32.9Wrecked, projected 50.3, scored 9.2Wrecked, projected 45.1, scored 16.2Did not finish, projected 39.6, scored 36.9Wrecked, projected 42.1, scored 38.6Wrecked, projected 36.1, scored 37.7Wrecked, projected 32.6, scored 33.7Wrecked, projected 30.1, scored 37.7Wrecked, projected 29.6, scored 21.2Did not finish, projected 59.7, scored 13.8Wrecked, projected 55.1, scored 14.1Wrecked, projected 56.9, scored 20.2Did not finish, projected 49.7, scored 22.8Wrecked, projected 46.2, scored 22.9Did not finish, projected 40.2, scored 1.1Wrecked, projected 30.7, scored 23.1Wrecked, projected 91.3, scored 14.4Wrecked, projected 74.8, scored 19Wrecked, projected 59.7, scored 24Wrecked, projected 61.7, scored 35.2Wrecked, projected 49.7, scored 17.6Wrecked, projected 40.7, scored 0.6Did not finish, projected 50.2, scored 40.4Did not finish, projected 39.2, scored 44.8Wrecked, projected 56.1, scored 0Wrecked, projected 43.4, scored 10.2Wrecked, projected 38.9, scored 15Wrecked, projected 49.2, scored 1.6Wrecked, projected 36.6, scored 7.7Wrecked, projected 33.6, scored 7.1Wrecked, projected 26.1, scored 22.6Wrecked, projected 43, scored -8.4Did not finish, projected 20.8, scored 8.1Wrecked, projected 34.7, scored 9.4Wrecked, projected 30.2, scored 9.8Wrecked, projected 18.7, scored 4.1Wrecked, projected 79.9, scored 1.4Wrecked, projected 68.8, scored -6Wrecked, projected 65.2, scored -11.9Did not finish, projected 64.8, scored 21.4Wrecked, projected 62.9, scored 12.4Wrecked, projected 46.6, scored -0.5Wrecked, projected 58.6, scored 15.4Wrecked, projected 54.7, scored 18.2Wrecked, projected 35.5, scored 0.4Wrecked, projected 13.5, scored 1Wrecked, projected 41.2, scored -9.8Wrecked, projected 31, scored -7.8Wrecked, projected 33.4, scored 13.4Wrecked, projected 30.4, scored -6.8Wrecked, projected 29.9, scored -5.8Wrecked, projected 29.9, scored 5.9Did not finish, projected 22.4, scored 0.1Wrecked, projected 17.9, scored 16.7Wrecked, projected 11.9, scored 7.3Wrecked, projected 5.9, scored 26.8Wrecked, projected 40.4, scored 1.1Wrecked, projected 16.8, scored 11.4Wrecked, projected 82.7, scored 36.3Wrecked, projected 72.7, scored 39.2Did not finish, projected 56.4, scored 16.1Did not finish, projected 56.9, scored 36Wrecked, projected 47.9, scored 50.6Did not finish, projected 44.4, scored 27.7Did not finish, projected 43.9, scored 45.4Wrecked, projected 64.6, scored 15.8Wrecked, projected 53.6, scored 16.5Wrecked, projected 44.3, scored -2.6Wrecked, projected 34.5, scored -0.4Wrecked, projected 39.5, scored 0.7Wrecked, projected 27.5, scored 24.1Did not finish, projected 19, scored 8.3Did not finish, projected 17.5, scored 21Wrecked, projected 86.4, scored 6.2Wrecked, projected 57.1, scored -9.3Wrecked, projected 54.3, scored -12.3Wrecked, projected 62.3, scored 3.8Wrecked, projected 55, scored -0.7Did not finish, projected 50.3, scored 6.1Wrecked, projected 29.7, scored 0.2Wrecked, projected 23.2, scored 2.7Wrecked, projected 24.7, scored 25.7Did not finish, projected 39.5, scored 28.4Wrecked, projected 49.5, scored -3.5Wrecked, projected 41.5, scored 7.9Wrecked, projected 31, scored 28.2Wrecked, projected 89, scored 43.9Wrecked, projected 86.4, scored 23.1Did not finish, projected 81.4, scored -5Did not finish, projected 71.5, scored 30.7Wrecked, projected 62.5, scored 39.4Did not finish, projected 51, scored 53.8Wrecked, projected 57.6, scored 8.4Wrecked, projected 44.5, scored 14.7Wrecked, projected 34, scored 19.1Wrecked, projected 52, scored 24.7Wrecked, projected 49.4, scored 18.6Wrecked, projected 38.3, scored 32.2Wrecked, projected 36.8, scored 35.1Wrecked, projected 30.8, scored 7.7Did not finish, projected 29.7, scored 6.9Wrecked, projected 71.4, scored 18.5Wrecked, projected 59.7, scored -2Wrecked, projected 56.1, scored 19.4Wrecked, projected 55.9, scored 29.8Wrecked, projected 42.2, scored 22.5Wrecked, projected 32.2, scored 26.3Wrecked, projected 29.7, scored 30.8Did not finish, projected 93.3, scored 24.4Did not finish, projected 82.9, scored 19.5Wrecked, projected 63.5, scored 44.6Did not finish, projected 50, scored 31.8Did not finish, projected 53, scored 57.8Did not finish, projected 58.4, scored 13.5Wrecked, projected 40.3, scored 17.6Wrecked, projected 62.8, scored 23.1Wrecked, projected 61.4, scored 3.8Wrecked, projected 54, scored 14.5Wrecked, projected 52.2, scored 32.9Wrecked, projected 39.8, scored 3.9Wrecked, projected 31.6, scored 29.3Wrecked, projected 16.1, scored 2.7Wrecked, projected 25.1, scored 16.6Wrecked, projected 22.6, scored -1.1Wrecked, projected 74.4, scored 31.1Wrecked, projected 69.2, scored 21.8Wrecked, projected 58.3, scored -1.2Wrecked, projected 68.5, scored 44.8Wrecked, projected 54.3, scored 9.4Wrecked, projected 58.3, scored 6.1Wrecked, projected 52.1, scored 46.8Wrecked, projected 36.6, scored 33.8Wrecked, projected 34.6, scored 39.6Wrecked, projected 25.6, scored 35.2Wrecked, projected 20.1, scored -2.9Wrecked, projected 30.6, scored 18.1Wrecked, projected 29.6, scored 35.5Did not finish, projected 44.8, scored -6Wrecked, projected 69.7, scored 27.6Wrecked, projected 59, scored 13.1Wrecked, projected 60.8, scored 24.6Wrecked, projected 56, scored 23.4Wrecked, projected 59.2, scored 8.6Did not finish, projected 52.6, scored 35.1Wrecked, projected 46.1, scored 41.9Wrecked, projected 41.1, scored 20Did not finish, projected 40.1, scored 22.4Wrecked, projected 33.1, scored 28.7Did not finish, projected 32.7, scored 9.2Wrecked, projected 68.5, scored 26.7Wrecked, projected 45.2, scored 33.8Did not finish, projected 45.7, scored 33.3Wrecked, projected 71, scored 15.3Did not finish, projected 53.5, scored 29.6Wrecked, projected 62.5, scored 3.9Wrecked, projected 56.6, scored 0.7Wrecked, projected 60.2, scored 4.4Wrecked, projected 52.5, scored -6.6Wrecked, projected 46.8, scored 6.7Wrecked, projected 35.7, scored 8.4Wrecked, projected 35.4, scored 8.9Wrecked, projected 19.9, scored 16.9Wrecked, projected 64.6, scored -3.5Wrecked, projected 56.1, scored 3.1Wrecked, projected 54.9, scored 6.5Wrecked, projected 41.2, scored 35.3Wrecked, projected 14.8, scored 12.5Wrecked, projected 73.2, scored 28.7Wrecked, projected 76.8, scored 2.4Wrecked, projected 69, scored -6.8Wrecked, projected 64.3, scored 31.3Wrecked, projected 58.2, scored 30.4Wrecked, projected 58.1, scored 34Wrecked, projected 40.6, scored 0.2Did not finish, projected 37.1, scored 34.1Wrecked, projected 70.9, scored 23.1Wrecked, projected 61.9, scored 15.2Wrecked, projected 63.4, scored 22.3Wrecked, projected 60.5, scored 21.3Wrecked, projected 59.3, scored 37.1Wrecked, projected 50, scored 14.4Wrecked, projected 51.9, scored 11.1Did not finish, projected 45.4, scored 10Wrecked, projected 38.9, scored 32.4Wrecked, projected 35.4, scored 10.1Wrecked, projected 63.2, scored 1.6Wrecked, projected 59.3, scored 17.4Wrecked, projected 54.8, scored 24.8Wrecked, projected 53.2, scored 13.2Wrecked, projected 44.7, scored 13.6Wrecked, projected 48.2, scored 11.9Wrecked, projected 43.7, scored 27.8Wrecked, projected 39.6, scored 5.7Wrecked, projected 33.1, scored 24.4Wrecked, projected 29.6, scored 27.1Wrecked, projected 30.6, scored 28Wrecked, projected 30.6, scored 26.4Wrecked, projected 25.1, scored 3.3Did not finish, projected 35.7, scored 1.1Wrecked, projected 34.7, scored 7.1Did not finish, projected 28.2, scored 14.2Wrecked, projected 19.2, scored 15.5Wrecked, projected 27.9, scored -11.7Wrecked, projected 14.4, scored -4.8Did not finish, projected 26.4, scored 3.8Wrecked, projected 8.9, scored -6.6Did not finish, projected 13.9, scored 13.9Wrecked, projected 10.4, scored 8.2Wrecked, projected 28.2, scored -5.5Wrecked, projected 30.7, scored 7.7Wrecked, projected 48.7, scored 22.4Wrecked, projected 41.3, scored 22Wrecked, projected 31.8, scored 28.5Did not finish, projected 29.8, scored 13Wrecked, projected 63.1, scored 20.9Did not finish, projected 54.6, scored 22Did not finish, projected 48.1, scored 37.3Wrecked, projected 57, scored -8.2Wrecked, projected 28.2, scored 8Wrecked, projected 20.2, scored 20Wrecked, projected 18.2, scored 17.7Wrecked, projected 20.7, scored 12.8Wrecked, projected 17.2, scored 19.6Wrecked, projected 76.8, scored -10.2Wrecked, projected 66.4, scored -6.1Wrecked, projected 55.8, scored 24.4Did not finish, projected 72, scored 24.4Did not finish, projected 57.4, scored -2.9Did not finish, projected 55, scored 22.1Wrecked, projected 35.5, scored 20.7Wrecked, projected 37.5, scored 25.7
Finished Wrecked DNF (mechanical / other)

Where the model is sharp

Projection-to-result correlation by track type, high on skill tracks, near-random where drafting and wrecks decide it.

Short tracks
0.38
Intermediate
0.36
Flat / 1-mile
0.35
Road courses
0.27
Superspeedways
0.10

Each race is re-projected using only the races before it, then graded against that race’s real FanDuel scoring. Model: track pace + qualifying (live board model).

Track record questions

Is the track record cherry-picked?

No. Every completed event in every sport is included, not just the good ones, and every projection is re-run with only what was known before the event.

What does “top players average X vs Y” mean?

The players the model ranks highest score that many DraftKings points on average, versus the field average. Leaning on the top of the board scores more.

Can I see the projections before I pay?

Yes. The projections, the stats, and this track record are free with an account, and the lineup optimizer is free too while the open beta runs.

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