Bet The LineNASCAR

Betting Edge

WWT. The model’s recommendations, then every market it watches.

Recommendations

No recommendations this week. They appear when the model prices a market meaningfully away from the posted line.

Race winner

DriverModelMarketBest priceRead
William Byron13.4%5.4%+1200Bovada-
Tyler Reddick9.9%5.4%+1200Bovada-
Kyle Larson11.7%7.9%+800Bovada-
Chase Elliott6%3.1%+2200Bovada-
Denny Hamlin14.4%11.8%+500Bovada-
Bubba Wallace4.3%2.7%+2500Bovada-
Ryan Blaney7%10.1%+600Bovada-
Christopher Bell7.2%12.8%+450Bovada-

Matchups

No book matchups posted for this race yet.

Stage winners

Stage 1 winner
DriverChanceFair line
Ryan Blaney9.2%+987
Chase Briscoe8.5%+1070
Denny Hamlin8.2%+1127
Christopher Bell7.1%+1311
Ty Gibbs6.3%+1497
Austin Cindric6.0%+1574
William Byron4.8%+1965
Joey Logano4.1%+2351
Stage 2 winner
DriverChanceFair line
Chase Briscoe7.5%+1227
Ryan Blaney7.2%+1286
Denny Hamlin6.5%+1444
Christopher Bell6.0%+1567
Ty Gibbs5.8%+1611
Austin Cindric5.0%+1891
William Byron4.5%+2132
Joey Logano3.8%+2566
No markets posted for this race yet, they fill in through the week.

Graded record

Record
4-20
Units
-4.45
Return per unit
-19.6%
Sample
6 races
24 bets

Full betting record →

Graded forward from Jul 26.

How stakes are sized

Stake is sized by edge and price against a 100 unit bankroll. Kalshi results are net of the trading fee.

Model = the site’s own probability; market = the venue’s price with the margin removed. Stage winner shows the model’s fair line, since no book we track posts that market. All prices are American odds, best venue shown, Kalshi net of its trading fee. Chance is the market’s probability where the model makes no call. Value is the model’s edge in the markets it calls (top driver per manufacturer, fastest lap) and the venues’ disagreement elsewhere, so it needs both venues posted there. Every recommendation locks before the green flag and grades in the record above. Stake is units against a 100 unit bankroll. Informational only, not betting advice. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.