Model accuracy & track record
Every number here is a Bet The Line model checked against real results. Graded, not claimed. The market is the accuracy ceiling; where we quote it, we say so.
Weekly projections
2025 season, every playerEvery projection re-run and checked against the real box score. The players this model ranked highest averaged 20.8 points a week vs 6.6 for the field, and it beats a recent-form baseline at every skill position:
r = correlation to actual · higher beats the recency-form baseline · graded on DraftKings scoring
A correlation says the order is broadly right. It does not say how wrong one row usually is, which is what you are actually risking when you start somebody. So here is the spread, measured:
// What a RB rank here has actually been worth
Where players we ranked in each band really finished, across the 2025 season. The bar is the middle half of outcomes, the notch is the median. Wide bars are the honest part: this is a weekly game and the order is a lean, not a promise.
Measured on the 2025 holdout, the season nothing was fitted on. Sample sizes run 54 to 432 player weeks per band.
// What a WR rank here has actually been worth
Where players we ranked in each band really finished, across the 2025 season. The bar is the middle half of outcomes, the notch is the median. Wide bars are the honest part: this is a weekly game and the order is a lean, not a promise.
Measured on the 2025 holdout, the season nothing was fitted on. Sample sizes run 54 to 432 player weeks per band.
// What a QB rank here has actually been worth
Where players we ranked in each band really finished, across the 2025 season. The bar is the middle half of outcomes, the notch is the median. Wide bars are the honest part: this is a weekly game and the order is a lean, not a promise.
Measured on the 2025 holdout, the season nothing was fitted on. Sample sizes run 54 to 192 player weeks per band.
// What a TE rank here has actually been worth
Where players we ranked in each band really finished, across the 2025 season. The bar is the middle half of outcomes, the notch is the median. Wide bars are the honest part: this is a weekly game and the order is a lean, not a promise.
Measured on the 2025 holdout, the season nothing was fitted on. Sample sizes run 54 to 432 player weeks per band.
// What a DST rank here has actually been worth
Where players we ranked in each band really finished, across the 2025 season. The bar is the middle half of outcomes, the notch is the median. Wide bars are the honest part: this is a weekly game and the order is a lean, not a promise.
Measured on the 2025 holdout, the season nothing was fitted on. Sample sizes run 54 to 108 player weeks per band.
Draft tier track record
2019-2024How the players in each draft tier have actually finished, graded leave-one-season-out in this scoring (a season’s tiers never see its own results). Three things the record shows:
- · Elite running backs are the riskiest premium pick. The top RB tier finishes ~RB13 on median and busts 19% of the time, worse than tier 2.
- · First-round receivers are the safest. The top WR tier finishes ~WR9 on median with a 45% league-winner rate and just 16% busts.
- · The cliffs are real. League-winner odds fall from ~30-45% in tiers 1-2 to about 5% by tier 4; bust rate crosses 50% around tier 5.
Running back
| Tier | Draft cost | Median finish | League-winner | Bust | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | RB1-6 | RB13 | 31% | 19% | 32 |
| T2 | RB5-15 | RB11 | 28% | 12% | 57 |
| T3 | RB15-24 | RB23 | 12% | 28% | 25 |
| T4 | RB16-32 | RB26 | 5% | 35% | 40 |
| T5 | RB19-41 | RB34 | 5% | 47% | 43 |
| T6 | RB24-50 | RB43 | 2% | 58% | 57 |
| T7 | RB33-62 | RB45 | 2% | 70% | 57 |
| T8 | RB42-68 | RB77 | 0% | 85% | 59 |
Wide receiver
| Tier | Draft cost | Median finish | League-winner | Bust | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | WR1-7 | WR9 | 45% | 16% | 31 |
| T2 | WR5-19 | WR14 | 27% | 18% | 33 |
| T3 | WR8-22 | WR20 | 9% | 18% | 55 |
| T4 | WR10-38 | WR38 | 3% | 41% | 74 |
| T5 | WR24-45 | WR37 | 6% | 38% | 52 |
| T6 | WR39-57 | WR60 | 2% | 64% | 58 |
| T7 | WR43-60 | WR52 | 3% | 64% | 39 |
| T8 | WR55-65 | WR77 | 0% | 84% | 38 |
Quarterback
| Tier | Draft cost | Median finish | League-winner | Bust | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | QB1-3 | QB7 | 20% | 10% | 10 |
| T2 | QB2-4 | QB4 | 43% | 0% | 7 |
| T3 | QB3-8 | QB9 | 37% | 21% | 19 |
| T4 | QB5-13 | QB16 | 11% | 52% | 27 |
| T5 | QB9-18 | QB14 | 6% | 39% | 31 |
| T6 | QB14-24 | QB22 | 3% | 69% | 32 |
| T7 | QB19-32 | QB26 | 0% | 71% | 31 |
| T8 | QB25-34 | QB27 | 0% | 82% | 22 |
Tight end
| Tier | Draft cost | Median finish | League-winner | Bust | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | TE1 | one player deep, no tier record | 6 | ||
| T2 | TE2-5 | TE6 | 36% | 36% | 14 |
| T3 | TE4-8 | TE11 | 7% | 43% | 14 |
| T4 | TE5-11 | TE13 | 15% | 35% | 20 |
| T5 | TE9-15 | TE13 | 5% | 45% | 20 |
| T6 | TE12-26 | TE22 | 0% | 74% | 31 |
| T7 | TE14-32 | TE23 | 5% | 67% | 39 |
| T8 | TE19-34 | TE29 | 0% | 83% | 30 |
One tier here covers a single positional rank, so the same player held it most seasons and there is no tier-level record to report. Everything else on this page pools several players a season.
median finish = middle actual positional finish · league-winner = an elite year · bust = outside startable · sample = players across 2019-2024. Quarterback and tight end top tiers are small samples. Kicker and defense are streaming positions and are graded but not shown here.
Game & win model
2019-2025 holdoutThe engine behind Winners, Survivor, and Pick 6. Graded straight-up against the closing market on 1,865 games.
lower Brier is better · the market moneyline is the ceiling · the blend matches it on priced weeks and covers the rest
Weekly projections: team environment x volume shares x efficiency x xTD allocation (DraftKings), graded every player-week against the box score. Draft tiers: frozen preseason consensus, clustered per position, refit leave-one-season-out and scored on the real season. Game model: a QB-value adjusted Elo graded against the de-vigged market. Numbers refresh as new results land.