Pick 6
Pick 6 teams, each worth different points if they win. Enter your game's point values below. It finds the 6 with the highest expected points.
Expected points
17.5
from 6 picks
Expected correct
3.5
of 6
All correct
3.4%
perfect week odds
Risk dial
Max EV
win% vs upside
Your 6 picks
BAL vs IND
61% to win · 5 pts
3.04
exp. pts
CHI vs CAR
58% to win · 5 pts
2.92
exp. pts
HOU vs BUF
48% to win · 6 pts
2.90
exp. pts
GB vs MIN
48% to win · 6 pts
2.90
exp. pts
DET vs NO
72% to win · 4 pts
2.89
exp. pts
DAL vs NYG
57% to win · 5 pts
2.86
exp. pts
Odds of exactly N correct
0
1%
1
5%
2
16%
3
30%
4
30%
5
16%
6
3%
This week's slate (set the points)
defaults are upset-weightedNE7 out
38%
SEA10 out
62%
SF9 out
36%
LAQB
65%
CHI11 out
58%
CARQB
42%
TB5 out
37%
CIN2 out
63%
NO10 out
28%
DET8 out
72%
BUF4 out
52%
HOU11 out
48%
BALQB
61%
IND6 out
39%
CLEQB
23%
JAXQB
77%
ATLQB
38%
PIT4 out
62%
NYJ8 out
46%
TENQB
54%
ARI5 out
19%
LAC8 out
81%
MIA6 out
36%
LV8 out
64%
GB9 out
48%
MIN9 out
52%
WASQB
34%
PHI5 out
66%
DAL5 out
57%
NYG4 out
43%
DEN8 out
43%
KCQB
57%
Expected points = win probability × the points you set. With upset-weighted scoring the optimizer will lean toward correct underdogs, since a lower-probability win pays more. Lock a team to force it in, exclude one to keep it out, and slide toward "play safe" to favor higher win probabilities over raw upside.