Season Projections
2026 full season · projected from 2023, 2024, 2025 · ranked by value over replacement
This is our own model’s answer to who scores the most this season, which is a different question from who to take at pick 1.07. The draft board is ordered by expert consensus on purpose, because in a replayed draft against a real room, consensus order plus knowing when a player will last beat every value based board we tested. Both are true at once: the consensus is the better draft-day order, and this is where we think it is wrong.
Ranked by value over replacement rather than raw points, because a points sort just groups the board by position. You start one quarterback and the twelfth is free, so the twelfth best is what every quarterback is measured against. Only quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends: we do not model kickers or defenses across a full season, so we do not rank them here. 9 of the top 150 have no NFL history to project from, mostly rookies. They hold their consensus slot and are marked held rather than given an invented number.
// How this board has actually scored
Rank correlation with what players really scored, on the drafted universe, for every season we can grade. Two yardsticks: last year’s points, which is the naive answer, and the market’s average draft position, which is the hard one.
| Season | Players | Us | Last year | Market | First 50 picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 222 | 0.639 | 0.640 | 0.652 | 0.267 v 0.334 |
| 2023 | 327 | 0.703 | 0.655 | 0.762 | 0.317 v 0.224 |
| 2024 | 469 | 0.757 | 0.731 | 0.759 | 0.204 v 0.342 |
| 2025 | 468 | 0.768 | 0.763 | 0.760 | 0.275 v 0.506 |
Read that honestly. We beat last year’s points in 3/4 seasons, which is the bar. We beat the market in 1/4 — so this is market competitive, not market beating. And in the first fifty picks the market is clearly ahead. The pooled number is carried by the deep pool, where the only question is whether a player starts at all.
- Rookies are absent entirely: no prior history to project from, so this scores veterans only.
- ADP prices holdouts, camp battles, suspensions and trades that this model cannot see.
// Where we disagree most
| # | Player | Pos | Bye | Consensus | Status | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan RobinsonATL | RB1 | 11 | RB2 | +1 | |
| 2 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | WR1 | 11 | WR3 | +2 | |
| 3 | Jahmyr GibbsDET | RB2 | 6 | RB1 | Q | -1 |
| 4 | Amon-Ra St. BrownDET | WR2 | 6 | WR4 | +2 | |
| 5 | Ja'Marr ChaseCIN | WR3 | 6 | WR1 | -2 | |
| 6 | Puka NacuaLA | WR4 | 11 | WR2 | -2 | |
| 7 | De'Von AchaneMIA | RB3 | 6 | RB8 | +5 | |
| 8 | Trey McBrideARI | TE1 | 14 | TE1 | even | |
| 9 | Ashton JeantyLV | RB4 | 13 | RB5 | +1 | |
| 10 | Chase BrownCIN | RB5 | 6 | RB7 | +2 | |
| 11 | Jonathan TaylorIND | RB6 | 13 | RB4 | -2 | |
| 12 | Justin JeffersonMIN | WR5 | 6 | WR6 | +1 | |
| 13 | Derrick HenryBAL | RB7 | 13 | RB13 | +6 | |
| 14 | A.J. BrownNE | WR6 | 11 | WR8 | +2 | |
| 15 | Christian McCaffreySF | RB8 | 8 | RB3 | -5 | |
| 16 | Zay FlowersBAL | WR7 | 13 | WR14 | +7 | |
| 17 | Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN | WR8 | 9 | WR41 | +33 | |
| 18 | Saquon BarkleyPHI | RB9 | 10 | RB10 | +1 | |
| 19 | Kenny GainwellTB | RB10 | 10 | RB33 | +23 | |
| 20 | Drake LondonATL | WR9 | 11 | WR7 | -2 | |
| 21 | Michael WilsonARI | WR10 | 14 | WR39 | +29 | |
| 22 | Parker WashingtonJAX | WR11 | 7 | WR36 | +25 | |
| 23 | Rico DowdlePIT | RB11 | 9 | RB31 | +20 | |
| 24 | Chris OlaveNO | WR12 | 8 | WR12 | even | |
| 25 | Courtland SuttonDEN | WR13 | 10 | WR37 | +24 | |
| 26 | Jeremiyah LoveARI | RB12 | 14 | RB12 | held | |
| 27 | Breece HallNYJ | RB13 | 13 | RB14 | +1 | |
| 28 | Brock BowersLV | TE2 | 13 | TE2 | even | |
| 29 | Josh JacobsGB | RB14 | 11 | RB16 | +2 | |
| 30 | Tony PollardTEN | RB15 | 9 | RB29 | +14 | |
| 31 | Kyren WilliamsLA | RB16 | 11 | RB15 | -1 | |
| 32 | Aaron Jones Sr.MIN | RB17 | 6 | RB38 | +21 | |
| 33 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG | RB18 | 8 | RB42 | +24 | |
| 34 | Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL | TE3 | 11 | TE7 | +4 | |
| 35 | George KittleSF | TE4 | 8 | TE10 | +6 | |
| 36 | Javonte WilliamsDAL | RB19 | 14 | RB17 | -2 | |
| 37 | D'Andre SwiftCHI | RB20 | 10 | RB22 | +2 | |
| 38 | James Cook IIIBUF | RB21 | 7 | RB6 | -15 | |
| 39 | Davante AdamsLA | WR14 | 11 | WR24 | +10 | |
| 40 | Travis Etienne Jr.NO | RB22 | 8 | RB18 | -4 | |
| 41 | Zach CharbonnetSEA | RB23 | 11 | RB49 | Out | +26 |
| 42 | Harold Fannin Jr.CLE | TE5 | 11 | TE5 | even | |
| 43 | Nico CollinsHOU | WR15 | 8 | WR9 | -6 | |
| 44 | Justin HerbertLAC | QB1 | 7 | QB8 | +7 | |
| 45 | George PickensDAL | WR16 | 14 | WR10 | -6 | |
| 46 | Jakobi MeyersJAX | WR17 | 7 | WR43 | +26 | |
| 47 | CeeDee LambDAL | WR18 | 14 | WR5 | -13 | |
| 48 | RJ HarveyDEN | RB24 | 10 | RB32 | +8 | |
| 49 | Colston LovelandCHI | TE6 | 10 | TE3 | -3 | |
| 50 | DK MetcalfPIT | WR19 | 9 | WR33 | +14 | |
| 51 | Jaylen WarrenPIT | RB25 | 9 | RB26 | +1 | |
| 52 | Tetairoa McMillanCAR | WR20 | 5 | WR16 | -4 | |
| 53 | Jaylen WaddleDEN | WR21 | 10 | WR21 | even | |
| 54 | Bo NixDEN | QB2 | 10 | QB14 | +12 | |
| 55 | Travis KelceKC | TE7 | 5 | TE9 | +2 | |
| 56 | Bucky IrvingTB | RB26 | 10 | RB20 | -6 | |
| 57 | Hunter HenryNE | TE8 | 11 | TE19 | +11 | |
| 58 | Drake MayeNE | QB3 | 11 | QB3 | even | |
| 59 | DeVonta SmithPHI | WR22 | 10 | WR13 | -9 | |
| 60 | Jadarian PriceSEA | RB27 | 11 | RB27 | held | |
| 61 | Dalton SchultzHOU | TE9 | 8 | TE21 | +12 | |
| 62 | Terry McLaurinWAS | WR23 | 7 | WR22 | -1 | |
| 63 | Tyler WarrenIND | TE10 | 13 | TE4 | -6 | |
| 64 | Ladd McConkeyLAC | WR24 | 7 | WR18 | -6 | |
| 65 | Quinshon JudkinsCLE | RB28 | 11 | RB21 | -7 | |
| 66 | Jameson WilliamsDET | WR25 | 6 | WR26 | +1 | |
| 67 | Caleb WilliamsCHI | QB4 | 10 | QB7 | +3 | |
| 68 | Brian Thomas Jr.JAX | WR26 | 7 | WR32 | +6 | |
| 69 | Omarion HamptonLAC | RB29 | 7 | RB9 | -20 | |
| 70 | Jalen HurtsPHI | QB5 | 10 | QB6 | +1 | |
| 71 | Khalil ShakirBUF | WR27 | 7 | WR48 | +21 | |
| 72 | Baker MayfieldTB | QB6 | 10 | QB18 | +12 | |
| 73 | Malik NabersNYG | WR28 | 8 | WR19 | Q | -9 |
| 74 | Matthew StaffordLA | QB7 | 11 | QB15 | +8 | |
| 75 | Tre TuckerLV | WR29 | 13 | WR62 | +33 | |
| 76 | Carnell TateTEN | WR30 | 9 | WR30 | held | |
| 77 | Tee HigginsCIN | WR31 | 6 | WR17 | -14 | |
| 78 | Patrick Mahomes IIKC | QB8 | 5 | QB13 | Q | +5 |
| 79 | Rome OdunzeCHI | WR32 | 10 | WR29 | -3 | |
| 80 | Garrett WilsonNYJ | WR33 | 13 | WR15 | -18 | |
| 81 | Josh AllenBUF | QB9 | 7 | QB1 | -8 | |
| 82 | TreVeyon HendersonNE | RB30 | 11 | RB23 | -7 | |
| 83 | Jerry JeudyCLE | WR34 | 11 | WR57 | +23 | |
| 84 | Juwan JohnsonNO | TE11 | 8 | TE16 | +5 | |
| 85 | Rhamondre StevensonNE | RB31 | 11 | RB28 | -3 | |
| 86 | Kenneth Walker IIIKC | RB32 | 5 | RB11 | -21 | |
| 87 | Alec PierceIND | WR35 | 13 | WR35 | Out | even |
| 88 | Trevor LawrenceJAX | QB10 | 7 | QB9 | -1 | |
| 89 | Dallas GoedertPHI | TE12 | 10 | TE13 | +1 | |
| 90 | Christian WatsonGB | WR36 | 11 | WR28 | -8 | |
| 91 | Jared GoffDET | QB11 | 6 | QB16 | +5 | |
| 92 | Michael Pittman Jr.PIT | WR37 | 9 | WR38 | +1 | |
| 93 | Sam DarnoldSEA | QB12 | 11 | QB22 | +10 | |
| 94 | Emeka EgbukaTB | WR38 | 10 | WR20 | -18 | |
| 95 | Mike EvansSF | WR39 | 8 | WR25 | -14 | |
| 96 | Jordyn TysonNO | WR40 | 8 | WR40 | held | |
| 97 | Lamar JacksonBAL | QB13 | 13 | QB2 | -11 | |
| 98 | Quentin JohnstonLAC | WR41 | 7 | WR44 | +3 | |
| 99 | Woody MarksHOU | RB33 | 8 | RB43 | +10 | |
| 100 | Mark AndrewsBAL | TE13 | 13 | TE15 | +2 | |
| 101 | DJ MooreBUF | WR42 | 7 | WR27 | -15 | |
| 102 | Mack HollinsNE | WR43 | 11 | WR104 | +61 | |
| 103 | Jauan JenningsMIN | WR44 | 6 | WR56 | +12 | |
| 104 | Makai LemonPHI | WR45 | 10 | WR45 | held | |
| 105 | Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI | WR46 | 14 | WR31 | -15 | |
| 106 | Romeo DoubsNE | WR47 | 11 | WR52 | +5 | |
| 107 | Alvin KamaraNO | RB34 | 8 | RB47 | +13 | |
| 108 | Cam SkatteboNYG | RB35 | 8 | RB19 | -16 | |
| 109 | Kyle MonangaiCHI | RB36 | 10 | RB35 | Q | -1 |
| 110 | Sam LaPortaDET | TE14 | 6 | TE8 | -6 | |
| 111 | Bryce YoungCAR | QB14 | 5 | QB26 | +12 | |
| 112 | Chuba HubbardCAR | RB37 | 5 | RB30 | -7 | |
| 113 | Brenton StrangeJAX | TE15 | 7 | TE18 | +3 | |
| 114 | Colby ParkinsonLA | TE16 | 11 | TE31 | +15 | |
| 115 | James ConnerARI | RB38 | 14 | RB56 | Q | +18 |
| 116 | Cade OttonTB | TE17 | 10 | TE27 | +10 | |
| 117 | Rashee RiceKC | WR48 | 5 | WR11 | -37 | |
| 118 | C.J. StroudHOU | QB15 | 8 | QB23 | +8 | |
| 119 | J.K. DobbinsDEN | RB39 | 10 | RB34 | -5 | |
| 120 | AJ BarnerSEA | TE18 | 11 | TE23 | +5 | |
| 121 | Chimere DikeTEN | WR49 | 9 | WR83 | +34 | |
| 122 | Tyjae SpearsTEN | RB40 | 9 | RB45 | +5 | |
| 123 | David MontgomeryHOU | RB41 | 8 | RB24 | -17 | |
| 124 | Aaron RodgersPIT | QB16 | 9 | QB29 | +13 | |
| 125 | Tucker KraftGB | TE19 | 11 | TE6 | Q | -13 |
| 126 | Jaxson DartNYG | QB17 | 8 | QB11 | -6 | |
| 127 | Chig OkonkwoWAS | TE20 | 7 | TE17 | -3 | |
| 128 | Tank DellHOU | WR50 | 8 | WR82 | Q | +32 |
| 129 | Geno SmithNYJ | QB18 | 13 | QB28 | +10 | |
| 130 | Jayden DanielsWAS | QB19 | 7 | QB5 | -14 | |
| 131 | Jordan AddisonMIN | WR51 | 6 | WR46 | -5 | |
| 132 | Luther Burden IIICHI | WR52 | 10 | WR23 | -29 | |
| 133 | KC ConcepcionCLE | WR53 | 11 | WR53 | held | |
| 134 | Xavier WorthyKC | WR54 | 5 | WR50 | Q | -4 |
| 135 | Jake FergusonDAL | TE21 | 14 | TE11 | -10 | |
| 136 | Brock PurdySF | QB20 | 8 | QB12 | -8 | |
| 137 | Josh DownsIND | WR55 | 13 | WR42 | -13 | |
| 138 | Darius SlaytonNYG | WR56 | 8 | WR97 | +41 | |
| 139 | Devin SingletaryNYG | RB42 | 8 | RB86 | +44 | |
| 140 | Troy FranklinDEN | WR57 | 10 | WR69 | +12 | |
| 141 | Ty JohnsonBUF | RB43 | 7 | RB73 | +30 | |
| 142 | Oronde Gadsden IILAC | TE22 | 7 | TE20 | -2 | |
| 143 | Theo JohnsonNYG | TE23 | 8 | TE34 | +11 | |
| 144 | Adonai MitchellNYJ | WR58 | 13 | WR58 | even | |
| 145 | Rachaad WhiteWAS | RB44 | 7 | RB36 | -8 | |
| 146 | Denzel BostonCLE | WR59 | 11 | WR59 | held | |
| 147 | Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ | WR60 | 13 | WR60 | held | |
| 148 | Kenyon SadiqNYJ | TE24 | 13 | TE24 | held | |
| 149 | Malik WashingtonMIA | WR61 | 6 | WR77 | +16 | |
| 150 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS | RB45 | 7 | RB41 | -4 | |
| 151 | Joe BurrowCIN | QB21 | 6 | QB4 | -17 | |
| 152 | Elic AyomanorTEN | WR62 | 9 | WR88 | +26 | |
| 153 | Cam WardTEN | QB22 | 9 | QB24 | +2 | |
| 154 | Dawson KnoxBUF | TE25 | 7 | TE47 | +22 | |
| 155 | Jordan LoveGB | QB23 | 11 | QB19 | -4 | |
| 156 | Pat FreiermuthPIT | TE26 | 9 | TE26 | even | |
| 157 | T.J. HockensonMIN | TE27 | 6 | TE22 | -5 | |
| 158 | Dak PrescottDAL | QB24 | 14 | QB10 | -14 | |
| 159 | Kyler MurrayMIN | QB25 | 6 | QB17 | -8 | |
| 160 | Blake CorumLA | RB46 | 11 | RB37 | -9 | |
| 161 | Jayden HigginsHOU | WR63 | 8 | WR49 | -14 | |
| 162 | Mason TaylorNYJ | TE28 | 13 | TE35 | +7 | |
| 163 | Dalton KincaidBUF | TE29 | 7 | TE12 | -17 | |
| 164 | Deebo Samuel Sr.SF | WR64 | 8 | WR64 | held | |
| 165 | Dylan SampsonCLE | RB47 | 11 | RB48 | +1 | |
| 166 | Darnell MooneyNYG | WR65 | 8 | WR75 | +10 | |
| 167 | Jalen CokerCAR | WR66 | 5 | WR51 | -15 | |
| 168 | Bam KnightARI | RB48 | 14 | RB101 | +53 | |
| 169 | Stefon DiggsFA | WR67 | - | WR67 | held | |
| 170 | Samaje PerineCIN | RB49 | 6 | RB80 | +31 | |
| 171 | Cooper KuppSEA | WR68 | 11 | WR81 | +13 | |
| 172 | Isaiah LikelyNYG | TE30 | 8 | TE14 | -16 | |
| 173 | Tyler AllgeierARI | RB50 | 14 | RB44 | -6 | |
| 174 | Emanuel WilsonSEA | RB51 | 11 | RB61 | +10 | |
| 175 | Jonah ColemanDEN | RB52 | 10 | RB52 | held | |
| 176 | Isiah PachecoDET | RB53 | 6 | RB50 | -3 | |
| 177 | Tyler ShoughNO | QB26 | 8 | QB20 | -6 | |
| 178 | Jacoby BrissettARI | QB27 | 14 | QB27 | even | |
| 179 | Kimani VidalLAC | RB54 | 7 | RB57 | +3 | |
| 180 | Evan EngramDEN | TE31 | 10 | TE29 | -2 | |
| 181 | Chris Godwin Jr.TB | WR69 | 10 | WR34 | -35 | |
| 182 | Mike GesickiCIN | TE32 | 6 | TE37 | +5 | |
| 183 | Marvin Mims Jr.DEN | WR70 | 10 | WR99 | +29 | |
| 184 | Eli StowersPHI | TE33 | 10 | TE33 | held | |
| 185 | Gunnar HelmTEN | TE34 | 9 | TE25 | -9 | |
| 186 | Pat BryantDEN | WR71 | 10 | WR79 | +8 | |
| 187 | De'Zhaun StriblingSF | WR72 | 8 | WR72 | Q | held |
| 188 | Jayden ReedGB | WR73 | 11 | WR47 | -26 | |
| 189 | Calvin RidleyTEN | WR74 | 9 | WR70 | -4 | |
| 190 | Kayshon BoutteNE | WR75 | 11 | WR68 | -7 | |
| 191 | Keon ColemanBUF | WR76 | 7 | WR89 | +13 | |
| 192 | Jordan MasonMIN | RB55 | 6 | RB40 | -15 | |
| 193 | Devaughn VeleNO | WR77 | 8 | WR100 | +23 | |
| 194 | Antonio WilliamsWAS | WR78 | 7 | WR78 | held | |
| 195 | Michael CarterTEN | RB56 | 9 | RB103 | +47 | |
| 196 | Ryan FlournoyDAL | WR79 | 14 | WR66 | -13 | |
| 197 | Xavier HutchinsonHOU | WR80 | 8 | WR126 | +46 | |
| 198 | Sean TuckerTB | RB57 | 10 | RB60 | +3 | |
| 199 | John Metchie IIICAR | WR81 | 5 | WR127 | +46 | |
| 200 | Tank BigsbyPHI | RB58 | 10 | RB54 | -4 |
The status column is live availability news and the projection does NOT use it: availability here is a historical rate, so a player listed out is still projected as though he plays. It is shown so you can see what the number does not know. Updated Aug 2. Built from information available before kickoff only: the last three seasons of play, this year’s rosters and schedule, and each player’s pre season depth chart slot, with an availability adjustment for how much of a season he is likely to be active. No betting lines, because future weeks do not have any yet. Positions covered: QB, RB, WR, TE.