Season Projections

2026 full season · projected from 2023, 2024, 2025 · ranked by value over replacement

League

Your flex can start a quarterback

This is our own model’s answer to who scores the most this season, which is a different question from who to take at pick 1.07. The draft board is ordered by expert consensus on purpose, because in a replayed draft against a real room, consensus order plus knowing when a player will last beat every value based board we tested. Both are true at once: the consensus is the better draft-day order, and this is where we think it is wrong.

Ranked by value over replacement rather than raw points, because a points sort just groups the board by position. In superflex the flex can start a quarterback, so twenty four of them clear a twelve team lineup instead of twelve. That pushes replacement down to the twenty fifth best quarterback and every one of them is worth far more over it, which is why they climb here. Only quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends: we do not model kickers or defenses across a full season, so we do not rank them here. 10 of the top 150 have no NFL history to project from, mostly rookies. They hold their consensus slot and are marked held rather than given an invented number.

// How this board has actually scored

Rank correlation with what players really scored, on the drafted universe, for every season we can grade. Two yardsticks: last year’s points, which is the naive answer, and the market’s average draft position, which is the hard one.

Season	Players	Us	Last year	Market	First 50 picks
2022	222	0.639	0.640	0.652	0.267 v 0.334
2023	327	0.703	0.655	0.762	0.317 v 0.224
2024	469	0.757	0.731	0.759	0.204 v 0.342
2025	468	0.768	0.763	0.760	0.275 v 0.506

Read that honestly. We beat last year’s points in 3/4 seasons, which is the bar. We beat the market in 1/4 — so this is market competitive, not market beating. And in the first fifty picks the market is clearly ahead. The pooled number is carried by the deep pool, where the only question is whether a player starts at all.

Rookies are absent entirely: no prior history to project from, so this scores veterans only.
ADP prices holdouts, camp battles, suspensions and trades that this model cannot see.

// Where we disagree most

Travis HunterWR63 to WR176-113Van JeffersonWR169 to WR97+72Jonathon BrooksRB39 to RB108-69Mack HollinsWR104 to WR43+61Greg DortchWR148 to WR91+57David Sills VWR167 to WR110+57

#	Player	Pos	Bye	Consensus	Status	Our call
1	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA	WR1	11	WR3		+2
2	Bijan RobinsonATL	RB1	11	RB2		+1
3	Amon-Ra St. BrownDET	WR2	6	WR4		+2
4	Ja'Marr ChaseCIN	WR3	6	WR1		-2
5	Puka NacuaLA	WR4	11	WR2		-2
6	Trey McBrideARI	TE1	14	TE1		even
7	Jahmyr GibbsDET	RB2	6	RB1	Q	-1
8	Justin JeffersonMIN	WR5	6	WR6		+1
9	A.J. BrownNE	WR6	11	WR8		+2
10	Zay FlowersBAL	WR7	13	WR14		+7
11	Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN	WR8	9	WR41		+33
12	De'Von AchaneMIA	RB3	6	RB8		+5
13	Justin HerbertLAC	QB1	7	QB8		+7
14	Ashton JeantyLV	RB4	13	RB5		+1
15	Bo NixDEN	QB2	10	QB14		+12
16	Chase BrownCIN	RB5	6	RB7		+2
17	Jonathan TaylorIND	RB6	13	RB4		-2
18	Derrick HenryBAL	RB7	13	RB13		+6
19	Drake MayeNE	QB3	11	QB3		even
20	Drake LondonATL	WR9	11	WR7		-2
21	Michael WilsonARI	WR10	14	WR39		+29
22	Parker WashingtonJAX	WR11	7	WR36		+25
23	Christian McCaffreySF	RB8	8	RB3		-5
24	Chris OlaveNO	WR12	8	WR12		even
25	Courtland SuttonDEN	WR13	10	WR37		+24
26	Brock BowersLV	TE2	13	TE2		even
27	Caleb WilliamsCHI	QB4	10	QB7		+3
28	Jalen HurtsPHI	QB5	10	QB6		+1
29	Baker MayfieldTB	QB6	10	QB18		+12
30	Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL	TE3	11	TE7		+4
31	Matthew StaffordLA	QB7	11	QB15		+8
32	Patrick Mahomes IIKC	QB8	5	QB13	Q	+5
33	George KittleSF	TE4	8	TE10		+6
34	Josh AllenBUF	QB9	7	QB1		-8
35	Trevor LawrenceJAX	QB10	7	QB9		-1
36	Harold Fannin Jr.CLE	TE5	11	TE5		even
37	Davante AdamsLA	WR14	11	WR24		+10
38	Colston LovelandCHI	TE6	10	TE3		-3
39	Jared GoffDET	QB11	6	QB16		+5
40	Nico CollinsHOU	WR15	8	WR9		-6
41	George PickensDAL	WR16	14	WR10		-6
42	Jakobi MeyersJAX	WR17	7	WR43		+26
43	CeeDee LambDAL	WR18	14	WR5		-13
44	Sam DarnoldSEA	QB12	11	QB22		+10
45	Lamar JacksonBAL	QB13	13	QB2		-11
46	Saquon BarkleyPHI	RB9	10	RB10		+1
47	DK MetcalfPIT	WR19	9	WR33		+14
48	Travis KelceKC	TE7	5	TE9		+2
49	Tetairoa McMillanCAR	WR20	5	WR16		-4
50	Jaylen WaddleDEN	WR21	10	WR21		even
51	Hunter HenryNE	TE8	11	TE19		+11
52	Kenny GainwellTB	RB10	10	RB33		+23
53	Bryce YoungCAR	QB14	5	QB26		+12
54	Dalton SchultzHOU	TE9	8	TE21		+12
55	C.J. StroudHOU	QB15	8	QB23		+8
56	DeVonta SmithPHI	WR22	10	WR13		-9
57	Rico DowdlePIT	RB11	9	RB31		+20
58	Tyler WarrenIND	TE10	13	TE4		-6
59	Jeremiyah LoveARI	RB12	14	RB12		held
60	Terry McLaurinWAS	WR23	7	WR22		-1
61	Aaron RodgersPIT	QB16	9	QB29		+13
62	Ladd McConkeyLAC	WR24	7	WR18		-6
63	Jaxson DartNYG	QB17	8	QB11		-6
64	Breece HallNYJ	RB13	13	RB14		+1
65	Geno SmithNYJ	QB18	13	QB28		+10
66	Jameson WilliamsDET	WR25	6	WR26		+1
67	Jayden DanielsWAS	QB19	7	QB5		-14
68	Brian Thomas Jr.JAX	WR26	7	WR32		+6
69	Josh JacobsGB	RB14	11	RB16		+2
70	Tony PollardTEN	RB15	9	RB29		+14
71	Kyren WilliamsLA	RB16	11	RB15		-1
72	Khalil ShakirBUF	WR27	7	WR48		+21
73	Aaron Jones Sr.MIN	RB17	6	RB38		+21
74	Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG	RB18	8	RB42		+24
75	Brock PurdySF	QB20	8	QB12		-8
76	Malik NabersNYG	WR28	8	WR19	Q	-9
77	Tre TuckerLV	WR29	13	WR62		+33
78	Carnell TateTEN	WR30	9	WR30		held
79	Juwan JohnsonNO	TE11	8	TE16		+5
80	Tee HigginsCIN	WR31	6	WR17		-14
81	Javonte WilliamsDAL	RB19	14	RB17		-2
82	Rome OdunzeCHI	WR32	10	WR29		-3
83	Garrett WilsonNYJ	WR33	13	WR15		-18
84	Jerry JeudyCLE	WR34	11	WR57		+23
85	D'Andre SwiftCHI	RB20	10	RB22		+2
86	James Cook IIIBUF	RB21	7	RB6		-15
87	Dallas GoedertPHI	TE12	10	TE13		+1
88	Travis Etienne Jr.NO	RB22	8	RB18		-4
89	Zach CharbonnetSEA	RB23	11	RB49	Out	+26
90	Alec PierceIND	WR35	13	WR35	Out	even
91	Joe BurrowCIN	QB21	6	QB4		-17
92	RJ HarveyDEN	RB24	10	RB32		+8
93	Cam WardTEN	QB22	9	QB24		+2
94	Jordan LoveGB	QB23	11	QB19		-4
95	Christian WatsonGB	WR36	11	WR28		-8
96	Dak PrescottDAL	QB24	14	QB10		-14
97	Kyler MurrayMIN	QB25	6	QB17		-8
98	Jaylen WarrenPIT	RB25	9	RB26		+1
99	Michael Pittman Jr.PIT	WR37	9	WR38		+1
100	Mark AndrewsBAL	TE13	13	TE15		+2
101	Emeka EgbukaTB	WR38	10	WR20		-18
102	Mike EvansSF	WR39	8	WR25		-14
103	Jordyn TysonNO	WR40	8	WR40		held
104	Quentin JohnstonLAC	WR41	7	WR44		+3
105	DJ MooreBUF	WR42	7	WR27		-15
106	Bucky IrvingTB	RB26	10	RB20		-6
107	Mack HollinsNE	WR43	11	WR104		+61
108	Sam LaPortaDET	TE14	6	TE8		-6
109	Jauan JenningsMIN	WR44	6	WR56		+12
110	Makai LemonPHI	WR45	10	WR45		held
111	Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI	WR46	14	WR31		-15
112	Romeo DoubsNE	WR47	11	WR52		+5
113	Brenton StrangeJAX	TE15	7	TE18		+3
114	Colby ParkinsonLA	TE16	11	TE31		+15
115	Cade OttonTB	TE17	10	TE27		+10
116	Jadarian PriceSEA	RB27	11	RB27		held
117	AJ BarnerSEA	TE18	11	TE23		+5
118	Tyler ShoughNO	QB26	8	QB20		-6
119	Rashee RiceKC	WR48	5	WR11		-37
120	Jacoby BrissettARI	QB27	14	QB27		even
121	Chimere DikeTEN	WR49	9	WR83		+34
122	Quinshon JudkinsCLE	RB28	11	RB21		-7
123	Tucker KraftGB	TE19	11	TE6	Q	-13
124	Chig OkonkwoWAS	TE20	7	TE17		-3
125	Omarion HamptonLAC	RB29	7	RB9		-20
126	Tank DellHOU	WR50	8	WR82	Q	+32
127	Jordan AddisonMIN	WR51	6	WR46		-5
128	Jake FergusonDAL	TE21	14	TE11		-10
129	Luther Burden IIICHI	WR52	10	WR23		-29
130	KC ConcepcionCLE	WR53	11	WR53		held
131	Xavier WorthyKC	WR54	5	WR50	Q	-4
132	Daniel JonesIND	QB28	13	QB25		-3
133	TreVeyon HendersonNE	RB30	11	RB23		-7
134	Rhamondre StevensonNE	RB31	11	RB28		-3
135	Josh DownsIND	WR55	13	WR42		-13
136	Kirk CousinsLV	QB29	13	QB34		+5
137	Oronde Gadsden IILAC	TE22	7	TE20		-2
138	Theo JohnsonNYG	TE23	8	TE34		+11
139	Darius SlaytonNYG	WR56	8	WR97		+41
140	Fernando MendozaLV	QB30	13	QB30		held
141	Troy FranklinDEN	WR57	10	WR69		+12
142	Kenneth Walker IIIKC	RB32	5	RB11		-21
143	Tua TagovailoaATL	QB31	11	QB31	Q	even
144	Adonai MitchellNYJ	WR58	13	WR58		even
145	Kenyon SadiqNYJ	TE24	13	TE24		held
146	Denzel BostonCLE	WR59	11	WR59		held
147	Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ	WR60	13	WR60		held
148	Dawson KnoxBUF	TE25	7	TE47		+22
149	Pat FreiermuthPIT	TE26	9	TE26		even
150	Malik WashingtonMIA	WR61	6	WR77		+16
151	T.J. HockensonMIN	TE27	6	TE22		-5
152	Elic AyomanorTEN	WR62	9	WR88		+26
153	Woody MarksHOU	RB33	8	RB43		+10
154	Mason TaylorNYJ	TE28	13	TE35		+7
155	Dalton KincaidBUF	TE29	7	TE12		-17
156	Jayden HigginsHOU	WR63	8	WR49		-14
157	Deebo Samuel Sr.SF	WR64	8	WR64		held
158	Isaiah LikelyNYG	TE30	8	TE14		-16
159	Alvin KamaraNO	RB34	8	RB47		+13
160	Cam SkatteboNYG	RB35	8	RB19		-16
161	Kyle MonangaiCHI	RB36	10	RB35	Q	-1
162	Darnell MooneyNYG	WR65	8	WR75		+10
163	Jalen CokerCAR	WR66	5	WR51		-15
164	Chuba HubbardCAR	RB37	5	RB30		-7
165	Stefon DiggsFA	WR67	-	WR67		held
166	Cooper KuppSEA	WR68	11	WR81		+13
167	James ConnerARI	RB38	14	RB56	Q	+18
168	J.K. DobbinsDEN	RB39	10	RB34		-5
169	Evan EngramDEN	TE31	10	TE29		-2
170	Tyjae SpearsTEN	RB40	9	RB45		+5
171	Mike GesickiCIN	TE32	6	TE37		+5
172	Eli StowersPHI	TE33	10	TE33		held
173	David MontgomeryHOU	RB41	8	RB24		-17
174	Gunnar HelmTEN	TE34	9	TE25		-9
175	Chris Godwin Jr.TB	WR69	10	WR34		-35
176	Marvin Mims Jr.DEN	WR70	10	WR99		+29
177	Pat BryantDEN	WR71	10	WR79		+8
178	De'Zhaun StriblingSF	WR72	8	WR72	Q	held
179	Jayden ReedGB	WR73	11	WR47		-26
180	Calvin RidleyTEN	WR74	9	WR70		-4
181	Kayshon BoutteNE	WR75	11	WR68		-7
182	Keon ColemanBUF	WR76	7	WR89		+13
183	Devaughn VeleNO	WR77	8	WR100		+23
184	Antonio WilliamsWAS	WR78	7	WR78		held
185	Ryan FlournoyDAL	WR79	14	WR66		-13
186	Justin FieldsKC	QB32	5	QB38		+6
187	Xavier HutchinsonHOU	WR80	8	WR126		+46
188	Michael MayerLV	TE35	13	TE43		+8
189	John Metchie IIICAR	WR81	5	WR127		+46
190	Oscar DelpNO	TE36	8	TE36		held
191	Jalen NailorLV	WR82	13	WR73		-9
192	Xavier LegetteCAR	WR83	5	WR98		+15
193	David NjokuLAC	TE37	7	TE30		-7
194	Devin SingletaryNYG	RB42	8	RB86		+44
195	Ty JohnsonBUF	RB43	7	RB73		+30
196	Germie BernardPIT	WR85	9	WR85		held
197	Zachariah BranchATL	WR84	11	WR84		held
198	Rachaad WhiteWAS	RB44	7	RB36		-8
199	Darnell WashingtonPIT	TE38	9	TE39		+1
200	Cole KmetCHI	TE39	10	TE46		+7

The status column is live availability news and the projection does NOT use it: availability here is a historical rate, so a player listed out is still projected as though he plays. It is shown so you can see what the number does not know. Updated Aug 2. Built from information available before kickoff only: the last three seasons of play, this year’s rosters and schedule, and each player’s pre season depth chart slot, with an availability adjustment for how much of a season he is likely to be active. No betting lines, because future weeks do not have any yet. Positions covered: QB, RB, WR, TE.