O'Reilly DFS Stats
How the model has graded against the real Xfinity finish, race by race.
Does the model actually work?
Every driver in every completed race, re-projected and graded against real scoring.
Higher projection → more points
The model’s top-projected tier of drivers averaged 54 actual points vs 37 for the field, across 51 races, a rising staircase means the projections rank drivers right.
Every driver, every race
Each dot is one driver in one race, projected vs. actual (0.45 correlation; the dashed line is a perfect call). Among the cars that finished it rises to 0.45, the 13 wrecks and mechanical DNFs are the off-line dots no model can foresee.
Where the model is sharp
Projection-to-result correlation by track type, high on skill tracks, near-random where drafting and wrecks decide it.
Each race is re-projected using only the races before it, then graded against that race’s real FanDuel scoring. Model: recency-decayed driver rating (live board model).
Your entered lineups
Optimize this race’s slate and hit download upload CSV on the DFS page, the lineups you enter are saved here and graded automatically once the result is in.
Scores live behind the DK/FanDuel login, so type them in; the cash rank (e.g. cashes top 8,500) is public on the contest page. Saved on this browser.
Actual DraftKings points, Iowa Speedway
| Driver | Start | Finish | Led | Fast | DraftKings | Mkt rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Chastain | 2 | 4 | 63 | 15 | 60.5 | - |
| Carson Kvapil | 3 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 57.8 | - |
| William Sawalich | 17 | 3 | 4 | 56.8 | - | |
| Sheldon Creed | 6 | 5 | 36 | 16 | 56.2 | - |
| Dean Thompson | 27 | 8 | 55.0 | - | ||
| Brennan Poole | 26 | 10 | 50.0 | - | ||
| Justin Allgaier | 5 | 24 | 83 | 67 | 49.9 | - |
| Austin Hill | 28 | 11 | 1 | 49.5 | - | |
| Nicholas Sanchez | 14 | 6 | 46.0 | - | ||
| Rajah Caruth | 4 | 2 | 44.0 | - | ||
| Taylor Gray | 13 | 7 | 1 | 43.5 | - | |
| Harrison Burton | 16 | 9 | 42.0 | - | ||
| Kyle Sieg | 21 | 12 | 40.0 | - | ||
| Carson Brown | 20 | 15 | 33.0 | - | ||
| Joey Gase | 34 | 22 | 32.0 | - | ||
| Brent Crews | 18 | 16 | 4 | 30.8 | - | |
| Brandon Jones | 15 | 14 | 1 | 30.5 | - | |
| Patrick Staropoli | 22 | 18 | 29.0 | - | ||
| Blaine Perkins | 25 | 20 | 28.0 | - | ||
| Ryan Ellis | 32 | 23 | 28.0 | - | ||
| Parker Retzlaff | 10 | 13 | 27.0 | - | ||
| Sam Mayer | 23 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 25.5 | - |
| Anthony Alfredo | 19 | 19 | 24.0 | - | ||
| Nathan Byrd | 31 | 25 | 23.0 | - | ||
| Sammy Smith | 9 | 17 | 5 | 20.3 | - | |
| Derek Lemke | 30 | 26 | 20.0 | - | ||
| Garrett Smithley | 33 | 29 | 17.0 | - | ||
| Josh Bilicki | 35 | 31 | 14.0 | - | ||
| Tyler Tomassi | 36 | 32 | 13.0 | - | ||
| Lavar Scott | 24 | 28 | 10.0 | - | ||
| Carson Ware | 37 | 37 | 4.0 | - | ||
| Mason Maggio | 29 | 34 | 2.0 | - | ||
| Ryan Sieg | 1 | 33 | 65 | 20 | 1.3 | - |
| Jeb Burton | 12 | 27 | 3 | 0.8 | - | |
| Jeremy Clements | 7 | 30 | 2 | -10.1 | - | |
| Jesse Love | 11 | 35 | 12 | -12.6 | - | |
| Corey Day | 8 | 36 | 2 | -22.1 | - |