Track record
How the model has graded against the real Xfinity finish, race by race.
Projected vs actual
How it's graded
Each race is projected using only the races before it, then graded against that race’s real FanDuel scoring. Model: recency-decayed driver rating (live board model).
Higher projection → more points
Reading the bars
Each bar is one projected tier, low to high. Bars that rise left to right mean the projections rank drivers in the right order.
Top tier averaged 55 actual points vs 37 for the field, 56 races.
Every driver, every race
Reading the dots
The dashed line is a perfect call. The 14 wrecks and DNFs are the off-line dots. No projection calls those.
One dot per driver per race, projected vs actual. 0.46 correlation, 0.46 among cars that finished.
Finished Wrecked DNF (mechanical / other)
Where the model is sharp
Correlation by track type.
Track types
High on skill tracks. Near random where drafting and wrecks decide the finish.
Short tracks
0.47useful9 races
Intermediate
0.50useful24 races
Flat / 1-mile
0.34useful4 races
Road courses
0.29soft10 races
Superspeedways
0.09chaos, diversify9 races
Forecastable
Upload the DraftKings lineups you entered, I'll score them against the actual result.
Actual DraftKings points, Las Vegas Motor Speedway
| Driver | Start | Finish | Led | Fast | DraftKings | Mkt rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Day | 1 | 1 | 136 | 46 | 99.7 | - |
| William Sawalich | 36 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 68.4 | - |
| Carson Kvapil | 9 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 61.0 | - |
| Sam Mayer | 8 | 6 | 40 | 22 | 59.9 | - |
| Jeremy Clements | 21 | 7 | 5 | 53.3 | - | |
| Jesse Love | 10 | 3 | 11 | 53.0 | - | |
| Brent Crews | 4 | 4 | 11 | 45.0 | - | |
| Anthony Alfredo | 18 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 44.3 | - |
| Austin Hill | 12 | 9 | 6 | 40.7 | - | |
| Taylor Gray | 5 | 5 | 1 | 39.5 | - | |
| Ryan Sieg | 20 | 12 | 1 | 39.5 | - | |
| Sammy Smith | 23 | 15 | 2 | 36.9 | - | |
| Dean Thompson | 22 | 16 | 33.0 | - | ||
| Lee Pulliam | 26 | 18 | 33.0 | - | ||
| Rajah Caruth | 6 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 30.2 | - |
| Harrison Burton | 11 | 14 | 2 | 26.9 | - | |
| Parker Retzlaff | 17 | 19 | 7 | 25.2 | - | |
| Brennan Poole | 16 | 17 | 25.0 | - | ||
| Sheldon Creed | 2 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 24.8 | - |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 25 | 23 | 8 | 24.6 | - | |
| Garrett Smithley | 31 | 25 | 23.0 | - | ||
| Kyle Sieg | 19 | 20 | 22.0 | - | ||
| Joey Gase | 33 | 27 | 21.0 | - | ||
| Lavar Scott | 30 | 26 | 20.0 | - | ||
| Josh Bilicki | 34 | 30 | 16.0 | - | ||
| Jeb Burton | 14 | 21 | 2 | 14.5 | - | |
| Josh Williams | 28 | 28 | 14.0 | - | ||
| Andrew Patterson | 15 | 22 | 13.0 | - | ||
| Ryan Ellis | 29 | 29 | 13.0 | - | ||
| Blake Lothian | 32 | 32 | 9.0 | - | ||
| Patrick Staropoli | 13 | 24 | 7.0 | - | ||
| Dawson Cram | 35 | 36 | 4.0 | - | ||
| Blaine Perkins | 24 | 31 | 3.0 | - | ||
| Mason Maggio | 27 | 33 | 2.0 | - | ||
| Justin Allgaier | 7 | 34 | -20.0 | - | ||
| Brandon Jones | 3 | 35 | 4 | 3 | -23.6 | - |