How the model has graded against the real Xfinity finish, race by race.
Every driver in every completed race, re-projected with no hindsight and graded against real scoring.
The model’s top-projected tier of drivers averaged 55 actual points vs 37 for the field, across 53 races, a rising staircase means the projections rank drivers right.
Each dot is one driver in one race, projected vs. actual (0.46 correlation; the dashed line is a perfect call). Among the cars that finished it rises to 0.46, the 12 wrecks and mechanical DNFs are the off-line dots no model can foresee.
Projection-to-result correlation by track type, high on skill tracks, near-random where drafting and wrecks decide it.
Each race is re-projected using only the races before it (no hindsight), then graded against that race’s real FanDuel scoring. Model: flat-equal-weight (live).
Optimize this race’s slate and hit download upload CSV on the DFS page, the lineups you enter are saved here and graded automatically once the result is in.
Scores live behind the DK/FanDuel login, so type them in; the cash rank (e.g. cashes top 8,500) is public on the contest page. Saved on this browser.
| Driver | Start | Finish | Led | Fast | DraftKings | Mkt rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 11 | 2 | 78 | 45 | 90.8 | - |
| Brandon Jones | 29 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 84.1 | - |
| Taylor Gray | 25 | 7 | 55 | 32 | 83.2 | - |
| Austin Hill | 16 | 5 | 1 | 50.5 | - | |
| Justin Allgaier | 17 | 6 | 3 | 50.4 | - | |
| Jesse Love | 6 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 49.3 | - |
| Connor Zilisch | 1 | 10 | 48 | 23 | 47.4 | - |
| Cole Custer | 21 | 9 | 47.0 | - | ||
| Brent Crews | 2 | 4 | 1 | 38.5 | - | |
| Sam Mayer | 9 | 8 | 3 | 38.4 | - | |
| Dean Thompson | 26 | 17 | 35.0 | - | ||
| Nicholas Sanchez | 15 | 12 | 34.0 | - | ||
| Harrison Burton | 18 | 15 | 31.0 | - | ||
| Leland Honeyman | 31 | 21 | 31.0 | - | ||
| Garrett Smithley | 23 | 18 | 30.0 | - | ||
| Sammy Smith | 10 | 13 | 27.0 | - | ||
| Ryan Ellis | 28 | 22 | 26.0 | - | ||
| Rajah Caruth | 32 | 24 | 26.0 | - | ||
| Jeb Burton | 22 | 20 | 25.0 | - | ||
| Carson Kvapil | 3 | 11 | 24.0 | - | ||
| Sheldon Creed | 8 | 16 | 9 | 23.1 | - | |
| Parker Retzlaff | 5 | 14 | 20.0 | - | ||
| Lavar Scott | 34 | 28 | 20.0 | - | ||
| Brennan Poole | 24 | 25 | 16.0 | - | ||
| Patrick Staropoli | 27 | 27 | 15.0 | - | ||
| Kyle Sieg | 33 | 30 | 15.0 | - | ||
| Corey Day | 4 | 19 | 6 | 11.7 | - | |
| Tyler Tomassi | 35 | 33 | 10.0 | - | ||
| Joey Gase | 37 | 34 | 10.0 | - | ||
| Myatt Snider | 12 | 23 | 8.0 | - | ||
| Blaine Perkins | 30 | 32 | 7.0 | - | ||
| JJ Yeley | 38 | 37 | 5.0 | - | ||
| Dawson Cram | 36 | 38 | 1.0 | - | ||
| William Sawalich | 13 | 29 | 1 | -2.5 | - | |
| Anthony Alfredo | 7 | 26 | -3.0 | - | ||
| Ryan Sieg | 14 | 31 | 3 | -6.2 | - | |
| Jeremy Clements | 20 | 35 | -9.0 | - | ||
| Josh Bilicki | 19 | 36 | -12.0 | - |